ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Research on the Geological Disaster Forecast
and Early Warning Model Based on the Optimal
Combination Weighing Law and Extension
Method: a Case Study in China
Yichen Zhang1,2, Feng Zhang1, Jiquan Zhang1, Enliang Guo1, Xingpeng Liu1, Zhijun Tong1
1Nature Disaster Research Institute, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University,
Changchun 130117, People’s Republic of China
2Jilin Institute of Geological Environmental Monitoring,
Changchun 130021, People’s Republic of China
Changchun 130117, People’s Republic of China
2Jilin Institute of Geological Environmental Monitoring,
Changchun 130021, People’s Republic of China
Submission date: 2016-12-20
Final revision date: 2017-02-22
Acceptance date: 2017-02-22
Online publication date: 2017-08-24
Publication date: 2017-09-28
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2017;26(5):2385–2395
KEYWORDS
geological disasterforecast and early warning modeloptimal combination of empowerment theoryextension modeloptimal combination of empowermentTheory
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Geological disaster causes loss of lives and damage to man-made and natural stuctures. In this paper,
a coupling method with optimal combination weighing law and extension model was established. Based
on dynamic impact factors such as forest coverage, annual average rainfall, topography and gemorphogy,
geologic structure, and type of rock and soil, the amount of disaster points and human engineering activities,
we chose Jilin Province in China as the case study area. We made a spatial analysis and drew a geological
disaster susceptibility zonation map using GIS technology. In addition, we established a geological disaster
forecast and early-warning model. The results are as follows: 1) the couple method is an innovative and
significant exploration, 2) geological disaster susceptibility zones in Jilin Province were divided into four
areas, and 3) the forecasting and early warning model has a relatively high accuracy of forecast and early
warning.
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