Seasonal Trend Indicators and Return Periods of Meteorological Drought in the Northern States of Mexico
Omar Llanes Cárdenas1, Héctor J. Peinado Guevara2, Jorge Montiel Montoya1,
Mariano Norzagaray Campos1, Héctor A. González Ocampo1,
Samuel Campista León3
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1Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional,
Unidad Sinaloa (CIIDIR-IPN-Sinaloa); Boulevard Juan de Diós Bátiz Paredes 250,
Guasave, Sinaloa, Mexico C.P. 81101
2Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Escuela de Ciencias Económicas Administrativas (UAS-ECEA);
Blvd. Juan de Dios Bátiz s/n, Col. San Joachín, Guasave, Sinaloa, México C.P. 81101
3Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Escuela de Biología; Av. Universitarios S/N. Col. Universitarios,
Culiacán Rosales, Sinaloa, México C.P. 80013
Submission date: 2016-12-09
Final revision date: 2017-01-11
Acceptance date: 2017-01-12
Online publication date: 2017-06-13
Publication date: 2017-07-25
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2017;26(4):1471–1484
Meteorological drought is an atmospheric condition characterized by a deficiency in the amount of precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. We calculated the magnitudes of average annual seasonal trends (June to September) of the following drought indicators for 1970-2011: average temperature (Tavg), precipitation (Prec), potential evapotranspiration (PET), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on a 24-month scale (SPEI-24), and return periods (RP) of drought (SPEI-24). The indicators were calculated from records of daily Tavg and Prec obtained from 38 CONAGUA (National Water Commission) weather stations located in the northern states of Sinaloa, Baja California Sur, Durango, Chihuahua, and Sonora. PET was calculated by the method of Thornthwaite; drought was calculated by the expression for SPEI-24 based on the calculation of deciles 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, and 9 of Prec; and the RP of SPEI-24 were calculated using the probability distribution function of Gumbel on time scales from 2 to 500 years. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was applied. The magnitude of change in the trends was estimated by Sen’s method for slopes. SPEI-24 showed positive and negative trends (-0.066 to 0.082). The results have predicted that there will be severe droughts in 2021 and 2036 in the states of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa.