Under the guidance of the “dual-carbon” target, China is diligently pursuing a distinctively Chinese emission reduction pathway, and contributing to the global low-carbon transition. Hubei Province, with its central position in Central China and as the core pilot province for China’s lowcarbon pathway development, has an inestimable demonstration value in terms of its carbon emission evolution and control strategy. Focusing on the time series data of Hubei Province, this study applies Kaya’s constant equation to decompose the key influencing factors of CO₂ emissions, and innovatively constructs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model under the Monte Carlo simulation framework, intending to capture the complex dynamic relationship between carbon emissions and influencing factors at key time points. The results indicate a long-term stable trend of change among the factors influencing CO₂ emissions in Hubei Province. The short-term positive impact effect of economic development level on CO₂ emissions is significantly higher than the long-term. The shortterm negative impact effect of energy intensity on CO₂ emissions is less pronounced than the longterm effect, while the short-term negative impact of CO₂ emission intensity is more substantial than its long-term counterpart. The conclusion confirms the obvious policy dynamic emission reduction effect observed at the key time point in 2014, following the establishment of the carbon emissions trading market. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the complex dynamics of regional carbon emissions. Hubei Province should persist in developing a clean energy system and refining the carbon market trading mechanism, thereby serving as an exemplary case study to elevate the construction quality of China’s national carbon market.