This paper presents the results of research aiming at uncovering provincial CO2 emissions patterns
in China, providing insights on CO2 emissions growth in the transportation sector, and using as case
to study the low-carbon pilot region of Liaoning. We performed an energy consumption analysis, a
decomposition analysis, and a decoupling analysis to provide a holistic picture of transportation-related
CO2 emissions growth over the last two decades, in parallel with the four stages of the national Chinese
economic and social development plan, or “Five-Year Plan” (FYP). The results indicate that the CO2
emissions generated by the transportation sector in the Liaoning Province have been gradually increasing
from the 9th FYP to the 12th FYP. Economic growth and population scale proved to be positive driving
factors of CO2 emission changes. Specifically, the economic scale played the most significant role in
increasing CO2 emissions. At the same time, energy intensity served as the principal factor in curbing
CO2 emissions, while energy structure displayed relatively weaker effects. In the period investigated,
the decoupling relationships have mainly experienced a clear positive trend, from an expansive negative
decoupling towards a weak decoupling. Several suggestions are provided for local authorities to achieve
CO2 emissions mitigation and sustainable development in transportation sector.
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