This study aims to assess the carbon pressure exerted by agricultural activities on ecological sustainability across 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2022. The Agricultural Carbon Pressure Index (ACPI) is introduced to evaluate both agricultural carbon emissions and the ecosystem’s carbon absorption capacity, providing a comprehensive regional perspective. The Tapio decoupling model is applied to analyze the relationship between agricultural economic growth and carbon emissions, while spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals geographical clustering patterns. The results highlight significant regional disparities in agricultural carbon pressure, with higher levels in the eastern coastal regions and lower levels in the western and northeastern regions. The findings underscore the need for differentiated policy measures to promote low-carbon agricultural technologies and enhance ecological protection. This study successfully achieves its goal of providing a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development strategies in China.