This study analyzes livestock carbon emissions in China from 2003 to 2022 using decoupling analysis, carbon carrying capacity estimation, carbon pressure index classification, Theil index decomposition, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results show a national decline in livestock carbon emissions, with the most significant reductions in the eastern region. The central and western regions exhibit slower progress, particularly in the west, where emissions remain high. Decoupling analysis reveals a predominant “strong decoupling” relationship between carbon emissions and economic output nationwide, but “strong negative decoupling” or “weak negative decoupling” persists in some areas, reflecting the persistence of high-carbon production models. Carbon carrying capacity estimation shows a significant decrease in the eastern region, while the central and western regions still have potential for improvement. The carbon pressure index remains at “high-risk” or “extremely high-risk” levels, particularly in the eastern region. The Theil index analysis uncovers regional and intra-regional disparities, with the central region contributing significantly to the national inequality. Spatial autocorrelation analysis identifies high-value clusters in Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning, as well as low-value clusters in Hubei, indicating uneven regional distribution of carbon pressure. This study provides insights into challenges in the livestock sector’s low-carbon transition and suggests strategies such as regional coordination, technology promotion, and policy optimization to support sustainable development.