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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Terrestrial
Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Yarlung
Zangbo River and the Two Tributaries
of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
1
Resources & Environment College, Xizang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
2
Res. Institute of Xizang Plateau Ecology, Xizang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University,
Nyingchi 860000, China
3
Key Laboratory of Alpine Vegetation Ecological Security in Xizang, Nyingchi 860000, China
Submission date: 2024-10-16
Final revision date: 2025-02-16
Acceptance date: 2025-03-17
Online publication date: 2025-04-29
Publication date: 2026-04-21
Corresponding author
Wenyuan Hao
Resources & Environment College, Xizang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
Resources & Environment College, Xizang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
Zhen Xing
Resources & Environment College, Xizang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
Resources & Environment College, Xizang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2026;35(2):2639-2653
KEYWORDS
land use and cover changeland-use simulationshared-socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway scenariosattribution analysisterrestrial ecosystem carbon storage YZRTT basin
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Terrestrial ecosystem carbon stock (TECS) plays a vital role as a worldwide carbon sink, helping
to mitigate global warming and lower atmospheric CO2 levels. TECS serves as a reliable indicator
for predicting global climate change. The patch generation land use simulation model incorporated
human and socioeconomic factors and considered global sustainable development. Various sharedsocioeconomic
pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios were used to
simulate and predict land use types in the Yarlung Zangbo River and Its Two Tributaries (YZRTT)
basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (TQP). An integrated evaluation model of ecosystem services and
trade-offs was employed to estimate the TECS of the YZRTT basin accurately during the same period.
The potential factors influencing TECS were examined utilizing pairwise and single components
in the geographical detector. In the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the TECS of the YZRTT basin will reach its
highest point by 2050. This is mainly attributed to converting a significant portion of grassland into
forest, resulting in the forest area reaching its maximum capacity. The expansion of cropland and
constructed land area has been successfully restricted. The land area in the YZRTT basin would generally
decline, except for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Due to the rapid urbanization and growth of towns and cities,
the existing developed land will be converted into cropland, artificial forests, and water bodies.
The TECS of the YZRTT basin are projected to rise under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-
Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. The relationship between the Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) and TECS is negatively correlated, meaning that as DEM increases, TECS
decreases. Settlements further away from the area tend to have higher TECS values. Anthropogenic
influences significantly increase TECS in the YZRTT basin, eventually becoming the dominant factor.
To enhance the TECS of the YZRTT basin, it is imperative for governments at all administrative levels within the basin to strategically plan the development of roads and other infrastructure while also
imposing restrictions on the growth of constructed land.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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