Assessing Flood Risk Dynamics on the Oder River within the Context of Socio-Economic Consequences and Lasting Sustainable Development
Łukasz Szałata1, Łukasz Kuźmiński2, Jerzy Zwoździak3
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1Wrocław University of Technology, Pl. Grunwaldzki 9, 50-377 Wrocław,
Department of Environmental Engineering
2Equation Chapter 1 Section 1 University of Economics in Wrocław, Department of Quantitative
Methods in Economics, Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wrocław, Poland
3IMGW-PIB Warsaw Branch, ul. Podleśna 61, 00-001 Warsaw
Submission date: 2017-06-09
Final revision date: 2017-08-17
Acceptance date: 2017-08-19
Online publication date: 2018-02-06
Publication date: 2018-03-12
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2018;27(3):1269–1279
We carried out a probabilistic analysis of the dynamics of flood risks for the selected area of the Oder River basin. The authors based their risk dynamics assessment on results from the distributions of the maximum values for a selected hydrological characteristic, namely flow rate. On the basis of the daily flow data from 1994-2013 collected at a hydrological station on the Oder River in the town of Malczyce, 30-day flow maxima were selected individually for four five-year periods. Then, a probabilistic model of maximal flow was estimated on the basis of these peaks for each five-year period. The resulting models were used to estimate flood risks and analyze the dynamics of the studied area.