ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Assessing Flood Risk Dynamics on the Oder River
within the Context of Socio-Economic
Consequences and Lasting Sustainable
Development
Łukasz Szałata1, Łukasz Kuźmiński2, Jerzy Zwoździak3
1Wrocław University of Technology, Pl. Grunwaldzki 9, 50-377 Wrocław,
Department of Environmental Engineering
2Equation Chapter 1 Section 1 University of Economics in Wrocław, Department of Quantitative
Methods in Economics, Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wrocław, Poland
3IMGW-PIB Warsaw Branch, ul. Podleśna 61, 00-001 Warsaw
Department of Environmental Engineering
2Equation Chapter 1 Section 1 University of Economics in Wrocław, Department of Quantitative
Methods in Economics, Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wrocław, Poland
3IMGW-PIB Warsaw Branch, ul. Podleśna 61, 00-001 Warsaw
Submission date: 2017-06-09
Final revision date: 2017-08-17
Acceptance date: 2017-08-19
Online publication date: 2018-02-06
Publication date: 2018-03-12
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2018;27(3):1269–1279
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
We carried out a probabilistic analysis of the dynamics of flood risks for the selected area of the Oder
River basin. The authors based their risk dynamics assessment on results from the distributions of the
maximum values for a selected hydrological characteristic, namely flow rate. On the basis of the daily flow
data from 1994-2013 collected at a hydrological station on the Oder River in the town of Malczyce, 30-day
flow maxima were selected individually for four five-year periods. Then, a probabilistic model of maximal
flow was estimated on the basis of these peaks for each five-year period. The resulting models were used
to estimate flood risks and analyze the dynamics of the studied area.
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