The Diversification of Air Temperature Trends in Poland (1981-2010)
Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Joanna Krużel
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Department of Ecology, Climatology and Air Protection, University of Agriculture
Mickiewicza 24/28, 30-059 Kraków, Poland
Publish date: 2016-10-05
Submission date: 2016-01-18
Final revision date: 2016-04-11
Acceptance date: 2016-04-12
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2016;25(5):2205–2209
The aim of this study is to answer questions such as: What is the pace of warming? How diversified is it in particular months? How is it spatially diversified in Poland in the 1981-2010 30-year period constituting the new, normal climate? The study was based on materials concerning monthly mean air temperature values from the above-mentioned period from 53 weather stations belonging to the network of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management spread evenly across Poland. It was stated that warming in Poland in the 1981-2010 period, amounting to 0.33ºC/decade, resulted mainly from a spring and summer temperature increase of α = 0.05. Temperature increases occurred at the greatest pace in July (0.81) and April (0.73). The pace is slightly slower in June (0.57ºC), and August (0.48oC/decade). A high trend for February (0.85ºC/decade) is not statistically significant. Trend values in October and December of 0.2ºC/decade are negative but statistically insignificant. The regional differentiation of statistically significant temperature trends in Poland is as follows: in April the greatest increase in temperature is visible in mid-western Poland, with the lowest values in: Zielona Góra 0.96, Gorzów Wielkopolski 0.88, Bielsko Biała 0.85, and Poznań 0.84ºC/decade. In June, there is a decrease of trends, from the highest values in southwestern Poland to the lowest in northeastern Poland: Zielona Góra 0.79, Poznań 0.74, Kalisz 0.61, Płock 0.57, and Ostrołęka 0.36ºC/decade. In July there is a decrease of trend values from east to west: Suwałki 1.08, Warsaw 0.97, Poznań 0.89, Legnica 0.71, Zielona Góra 0.69, and Szczecin 0.57ºC/decade. In July and August a decrease in trend values can be observed from east to west: Zamość 0.71, Warsaw 0.49, and Szczecin 0.27ºC/decade.