Taking Xinjiang Autonomous Region as the research area and water environment regulation as the analysis perspective, this paper proposes a method to analyze the reasonable speed of regional tourism development under the green concept. This study analyzes the basic elements of the subsystem of tourism development and water environment regulation, and constructs an evaluation index system. The index is normalized, and the weight of the index is determined through the combination weighting method. The coupling degree of tourism development and water environment regulation in different years is divided into four grades: excellent, good, meduim and poor. This paper also predicts the relevant development indicators of Xinjiang Autonomous Region in 2025, at the end of the 14^th Five-Year Plan period. The average coupling degree corresponding to the excellent and good years during the sample years is taken as the threshold value, in order to estimate the reasonable development speed of Xinjiang Autonomous Region’s tourism in 2025. The results show that, during the 14^th Five-Year Plan period, in order to ensure a good degree of coupling between the development of tourism and the regulation of the water environment in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, the total scale of tourists in Xinjiang Autonomous Region should be controlled within the range of from 257 million to 284 million person-times, and the development speed should be controlled to between 11.56% and 12.93% per year.