Quantitative Contribution of Climate Change and Land Use Change to Runoff in Tarbela Catchment, Pakistan
Rana Shahram Shaukat 1  
,   Mudasser Muneer Khan 1  
,   Muhammad Shahid 2,3  
,   Muhammad Shoaib 4  
,   Tanveer Ahmad Khan 1  
,   Muhammad Asif Aslam 1
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Department of Civil Engineering, University College of Engineering and Technology, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
NICE, SCEE, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan
Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan
Muhammad Shahid   

Department of Hydraulic Engineering,, State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, China
Submission date: 2019-07-06
Final revision date: 2019-09-05
Acceptance date: 2019-09-08
Online publication date: 2020-03-27
Publication date: 2020-05-12
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2020;29(5):3295–3304
Estimating the quantitate contribution of climate and land use change is necessary for planning water resources. Tarbela catchment in Pakistan was selected for this study. The Mann Kendall and Pettit test has been used for trend analysis of hydro climatic variables. Original climate elasticity method and improved empirical model of precipitation have been used. The results of trend analysis showed that precipitation and runoff trends decreased and potential evaporation trends increased. The annual rainfall and runoff presented a change point around the years 1999 and 1994 respectively. According to change point analysis, the runoff series was divided into two parts. The period before change point has been regarded as the pre-change period and the period after change point has been regarded as the post change period. According to the original climate elasticity method, the relative contribution of climate change and land use change has been computed as 39.3% and 60.7% respectively. Similarly the improved empirical model of precipitation showed relative contributions of climate change as 41.7% and the same for land use change as 58.3%. To validate the land use change contribution we prepared land use maps. It can be concluded that land use and climate change are responsible for runoff change in Tarbela catchment, and both methods performed well and results are in agreement.