Quercus acutissima Carruth. is a crucial tree species in China’s forest ecosystem, yet climate change poses a threat to its distribution. This study was designed to precisely predict its potential distribution area under varying climate scenarios. We gathered distribution points from multiple sources and environmental variables from relevant websites and models. After meticulous data processing and variable selection, a MaxEnt model was developed. Our research encompassed identifying the primary environmental factors influencing its distribution, analyzing the changes in potential suitable areas across different climate scenarios, determining climate-abnormal areas and their associated variables, and tracking the shift of the distribution center’s gravity. The findings revealed that annual precipitation was the most significant environmental factor. Under current conditions, the total suitable area accounted for about 26% of the country’s land area, with the highly suitable area approximately 25.6 km2 (2.7% of the total area), the moderately suitable area about 109.9 km2 (11% of the total area), and the low - suitable area around 115.2 km2 (12% of the total area). Future climate scenarios demonstrated a northward expansion trend of suitable areas, with the SSP585 scenario showing the most prominent changes. The total suitable areas in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s are approximately 293.23 km2, 351.04 km2, 393.07 km2, and 462.14 km2 respectively, showing an increase of 13.64%, 28.6%, 36.23%, and 45.76% respectively. The distribution center migrated northward over time. This study offers essential theoretical support for the protection, rational development, and utilization of Q. acutissima resources.