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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Prediction of the Potential Distribution
Area for Quercus acutissima Carruth.
in China under Climate Change
1
School of Geographic Information and Tourism, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou 239000, China
2
Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Physical Geographic Environment, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou 239000, China
3
Anhui Engineering Research Center of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Chuzhou University,
Chuzhou 239000, China
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Submission date: 2025-03-10
Final revision date: 2025-04-08
Acceptance date: 2025-04-19
Online publication date: 2025-06-04
Corresponding author
KEYWORDS
Quercus acutissima Carruthclimate changeMaxEnt modelpotential distribution areaenvironmental factors
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Quercus acutissima Carruth. is a crucial tree species in China’s forest ecosystem, yet climate
change poses a threat to its distribution. This study was designed to precisely predict its potential
distribution area under varying climate scenarios. We gathered distribution points from multiple sources
and environmental variables from relevant websites and models. After meticulous data processing
and variable selection, a MaxEnt model was developed. Our research encompassed identifying
the primary environmental factors influencing its distribution, analyzing the changes in potential
suitable areas across different climate scenarios, determining climate-abnormal areas and their
associated variables, and tracking the shift of the distribution center’s gravity. The findings revealed
that annual precipitation was the most significant environmental factor. Under current conditions,
the total suitable area accounted for about 26% of the country’s land area, with the highly suitable
area approximately 25.6 km2 (2.7% of the total area), the moderately suitable area about 109.9 km2
(11% of the total area), and the low - suitable area around 115.2 km2 (12% of the total area). Future
climate scenarios demonstrated a northward expansion trend of suitable areas, with the SSP585 scenario
showing the most prominent changes. The total suitable areas in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s are
approximately 293.23 km2, 351.04 km2, 393.07 km2, and 462.14 km2 respectively, showing an increase of
13.64%, 28.6%, 36.23%, and 45.76% respectively. The distribution center migrated northward over time.
This study offers essential theoretical support for the protection, rational development, and utilization of
Q. acutissima resources.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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