ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Modeling Soil Carbon Variability along an Elevation Gradient in a Western Himalayan Mountain Ecosystem Using Multiple Statistical Approaches
 
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1
Department of Botany, The University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, 13101. Pakistan
 
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Department of Botany, University of Kotli, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, 11100. Pakistan
 
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Department of Botany, Mirpur University of Science and Technology (MUST), Mirpur 10250 (AJK), Pakistan
 
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Department of Botany, Women University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Bagh, 12500, Pakistan
 
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Department of Plant Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, 45320, Pakistan
 
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Department of Medicinal Chemistry, College of Pharmacy, University of Minnesota, 308 Harvard St., SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
 
 
Submission date: 2024-12-02
 
 
Final revision date: 2025-02-25
 
 
Acceptance date: 2025-05-01
 
 
Online publication date: 2025-06-30
 
 
Corresponding author
Raja Waqar Ahmed Khan   

Department of Botany, The University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, 13101. Pakistan
 
 
Tariq Saiff Ullah   

Department of Botany, University of Kotli, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, 11100. Pakistan
 
 
 
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Understanding soil organic carbon dynamics is crucial for climate change mitigation and developing strategies for sustainable land management. This research aimed to quantify SOC, analyze the effect of physicochemical properties on SOC, and evaluate different statistical models to identify the effective predictors for SOC. A total of 280 soil samples were analyzed for physicochemical properties using standard protocols. The study applied several statistical models, including Linear Mixed, Random Forest, Bayesian Linear, Generalized Additive, Multivariate Regression models, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Undisturbed soils exhibited significantly higher SOC stocks, averaging 74.71±8.65 Mg ha⁻1, compared to 53.58±7.13 Mg ha⁻1 in disturbed soils. The LMM and GAM indicated a significant baseline SOC but showed no notable effect of altitude on SOC (p = 0.703 and 0.62-0.93, respectively). RFR identified bulk density as the strongest predictor, with the highest node purity (2269.57). PCA accounted for 78.35% of the variance, showing the critical role of soil texture in stabilizing SOC. Altitude showed a minimal effect; soil bulk density is the key factor in SOC variability, while clay content is crucial for SOC stabilization. Advanced models like RFR provide better SOC predictions, aiding sustainable land management while incorporating additional variables that could further enhance SOC forecasting.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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