ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Modeling Soil Carbon Variability along
an Elevation Gradient in a Western
Himalayan Mountain Ecosystem Using
Multiple Statistical Approaches
More details
Hide details
1
Department of Botany, The University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, 13101. Pakistan
2
Department of Botany, University of Kotli, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, 11100. Pakistan
3
Department of Botany, Mirpur University of Science and Technology (MUST), Mirpur 10250 (AJK), Pakistan
4
Department of Botany, Women University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Bagh, 12500, Pakistan
5
Department of Plant Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, 45320, Pakistan
6
Department of Medicinal Chemistry, College of Pharmacy, University of Minnesota, 308 Harvard St., SE, Minneapolis,
MN 55455, USA
Submission date: 2024-12-02
Final revision date: 2025-02-25
Acceptance date: 2025-05-01
Online publication date: 2025-06-30
Corresponding author
Raja Waqar Ahmed Khan
Department of Botany, The University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, 13101. Pakistan
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Understanding soil organic carbon dynamics is crucial for climate change mitigation and developing
strategies for sustainable land management. This research aimed to quantify SOC, analyze the effect of
physicochemical properties on SOC, and evaluate different statistical models to identify the effective
predictors for SOC. A total of 280 soil samples were analyzed for physicochemical properties using
standard protocols. The study applied several statistical models, including Linear Mixed, Random Forest,
Bayesian Linear, Generalized Additive, Multivariate Regression models, and Principal Component
Analysis (PCA). Undisturbed soils exhibited significantly higher SOC stocks, averaging 74.71±8.65 Mg
ha⁻1, compared to 53.58±7.13 Mg ha⁻1 in disturbed soils. The LMM and GAM indicated a significant
baseline SOC but showed no notable effect of altitude on SOC (p = 0.703 and 0.62-0.93, respectively).
RFR identified bulk density as the strongest predictor, with the highest node purity (2269.57). PCA
accounted for 78.35% of the variance, showing the critical role of soil texture in stabilizing SOC.
Altitude showed a minimal effect; soil bulk density is the key factor in SOC variability, while clay content is crucial for SOC stabilization. Advanced models like RFR provide better SOC predictions,
aiding sustainable land management while incorporating additional variables that could further enhance
SOC forecasting.