Firstly, the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon emissions in the Chinese building sector are explored. Secondly, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the provincial contributions to carbon emissions in the Chinese building sector and their influencing factors are analyzed. Finally, the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions in the Chinese building sector is projected for the period 2022-2050. The results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2021, carbon emissions in the Chinese buildings still maintain a high growth trend. In addition, building carbon emissions also offer unbalanced features in space. (2) The level of spatial aggregation of carbon emissions from buildings in China is on the rise. (3) The intensity of economic activity and per capita floor area are the main factors driving the increase in carbon emissions in the Chinese buildings, and energy consumption per unit of GDP is the most significant factor mitigating the rise in carbon emissions in the Chinese buildings. The level of contribution of each element to the carbon emissions in the Chinese buildings varies considerably from province to province. (4) Carbon emissions in Chinese building sector will peak at 2.463 BtCO₂ in 2036.