ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Environmental Assessment of PM2.5 Concentration Patterns Through TC-MixerInformer Modeling: Cross-Regional Analysis of Shanghai and London
,
 
 
 
More details
Hide details
1
Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China
 
 
Submission date: 2025-07-24
 
 
Final revision date: 2025-10-23
 
 
Acceptance date: 2025-11-02
 
 
Online publication date: 2026-02-03
 
 
Corresponding author
Changgui Gu   

Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China
 
 
 
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Urban air quality prediction faces dual challenges: complex pollution processes and cross-regional diversity. Traditional methods and deep learning techniques often struggle with non-stationary time series data and fail to adapt to unique urban pollution patterns. Additionally, existing models face computational limitations when processing long sequences. Although the Informer model improves computational efficiency through ProbSparse self-attention mechanisms, its accuracy decreases with longer prediction horizons. This limitation stems from inadequate adaptability to non-stationary environmental changes and insufficient capture of temporal variations inherent in urban air quality data. Meanwhile, cities in developed and developing countries exhibit fundamentally different pollution mechanisms, challenging models’ cross-regional generalization capabilities. To tackle these two challenges, this study proposes TC-MixerInformer, combining Reversible Instance Normalization (RevIN) with a Temporal-Channel Mixer (TCMixer) module. Validation using Shanghai (Jing’an) and London (North Kensington) monitoring stations demonstrates excellent performance in both short-term (1-12 h) and long-term (24-168 h) predictions, with 8%-54% error reductions compared to baseline models. The model effectively handles Shanghai’s complex pollution patterns (2-378 μg/m³, mean 28.23 μg/m³) and London’s lower concentrations (0-121.56 μg/m³, mean 8.08 μg/m³). RevIN addresses time series non-stationarity while TCMixer enhances multi-scale feature expression, maintaining stable performance across different time scales. The model shows particular advantages in predicting extreme pollution events, especially capturing substantial peaks approaching 350+ μg/m³ in Shanghai. Our research provides a new technical approach for addressing scale diversity and temporal non-stationarity in urban air quality prediction.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
REFERENCES (47)
1.
LI T., SHEN H., YUAN Q., ZHANG X., ZHANG L. Estimating Ground-Level PM2.5 by Fusing Satellite and Station Observations: A Geo-Intelligent Deep Learning Approach. Geophysical Research Letters. 44, (23), 2017. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL....
 
2.
LIU B., YAN S., LI J., QU G., LI Y., LANG J., GU R. A Sequence-to-Sequence Air Quality Predictor Based on the n-Step Recurrent Prediction. IEEE Access. 7, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS....
 
3.
IZUCHUKWU PRECIOUS O. Air pollution and public health: examining the correlation between PM2.5 levels and respiratory diseases in major cities in Nigeria. Journal of Theory, Mathematics and Physics. 4, (4), 1, 2025.
 
4.
ZHANG M., TAN S., PAN Z., HAO D., ZHANG X., CHEN Z. The spatial spillover effect and nonlinear relationship analysis between land resource misallocation and environmental pollution: Evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Management. 321, 115873, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv....
 
5.
CAO J., ZHANG M., CHEN E. The Dynamic Effects of Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand on Air Quality: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin, China. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 34 (6), 8043, 2025. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes....
 
6.
LU Z., ZHANG M., HU C., MA L., CHEN E., ZHANG C., XIA G. Spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of the coupled production-Living-Ecological functions in the Yellow River Basin, China. Land. 13 (11), 1909, 2024. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13....
 
7.
PENG H., LOU H., YANG Y., HE Q., LIU Y., CHEN E., ZHANG M. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of human-air-ground coupling relationships at fine scale. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 2025. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes....
 
8.
BAKER K.R., FOLEY K.M. A nonlinear regression model estimating single source concentrations of primary and secondarily formed PM2.5. Atmospheric Environment. 45 (22), 3758, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmo....
 
9.
BAI L., WANG J., MA X., LU H. Air pollution forecasts: An overview. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 15 (4), 780, 2018. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph....
 
10.
WU N., BRADELY G., XUE B., SHAWN O.B. Deep Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting: The Influenza Prevalence Case. ArXiv. 2020.
 
11.
DING W., ZHU Y. Prediction of PM2.5 Concentration in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Based on PCA-Attention-LSTM. Atmosphere. 13 (9), 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos1....
 
12.
QI Y., LI Q., KARIMIAN H., LIU D. A hybrid model for spatiotemporal forecasting of PM2.5 based on graph convolutional neural network and long short-term memory. Science of the Total Environment. 664, 1, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scit....
 
13.
VASWANI A., SHAZEER N., PARMAR N., USZKOREIT J., JONES L., GOMEZ A.N., KAISER Ł., POLOSUKHIN I. Attention is all you need. ArXiv. 2017.
 
14.
YANG J., YAN R., NONG M., LIAO J., LI F., SUN W. PM2.5 concentrations forecasting in Beijing through deep learning with different inputs, model structures and forecast time. Atmospheric Pollution Research. 12 (9), 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.....
 
15.
CHEN J., LU J., AVISE J.C., DAMASSA J.A., KLEEMAN M.J., KADUWELA A.P. Seasonal modeling of PM2.5 in California's San Joaquin Valley. Atmospheric Environment. 92, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmo....
 
16.
YU T., WANG Y., HUANG J., LIU X., LI J., ZHAN W. Study on the regional prediction model of PM2.5 concentrations based on multi-source observations. Atmospheric Pollution Research. 13 (4), 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.....
 
17.
ZHOU H., ZHANG S., PENG J., ZHANG S., LI J., XIONG H., ZHANG W. Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting. ArXiv. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v....
 
18.
WANG L., GENG X., MA X., LIU F., YANG Q. Cross-city transfer learning for deep spatio-temporal prediction. ArXiv. 2019. https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai....
 
19.
LIU Y., WU H., WANG J., LONG M. Non-stationary transformers: Exploring the stationarity in time series forecasting. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. 35, 9881, 2022. https://doi.org/10.52202/06843....
 
20.
KIM T., KIM J., TAE Y., PARK C., CHOI J.H., CHOO J. Reversible instance normalization for accurate time-series forecasting against distribution shift. 10th International Conference on Learning Representations, 2022.
 
21.
ORESHKIN B.N., CARPOV D., CHAPADOS N., BENGIO Y. Meta-learning framework with applications to zero-shot time-series forecasting. ArXiv. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v....
 
22.
EKAMBARAM V., JATI A., NGUYEN N., SINTHONG P., KALAGNANAM J. TSMixer: Lightweight MLP-Mixer Model for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting. The 29th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1145/358030....
 
23.
GUO G., WANG H., BELL D., BI Y., GREER K. KNN model-based approach in classification. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics). 2888, 986, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-....
 
24.
KIM H.S., PARK I., SONG C.H., LEE K., YUN J.W., KIM H.K., JEON M., LEE J., HAN K.M. Development of a daily PM10 and PM2.5 prediction system using a deep long short-term memory neural network model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 19 (20), 2019. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19....
 
25.
SHIH S.Y., SUN F.K., LEE H.Y. Temporal pattern attention for multivariate time series forecasting. Machine Learning. 108 (8-9), 2019. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994....
 
26.
ZHANG T., CUI Z., WANG B., REN Y., YU H., DENG P., WANG Y. PreMixer: MLP-Based Pre-training Enhanced MLP-Mixers for Large-scale Traffic Forecasting. ArXiv. 2024. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4....
 
27.
CAMPOS D., ZHANG M., YANG B., KIEU T., GUO C., JENSEN C.S. LightTS: Lightweight Time Series Classification with Adaptive Ensemble Distillation. Proceedings of the ACM on Management of Data. 1 (2), 2023. https://doi.org/10.1145/358931....
 
28.
LIU S., YU H., LIAO C., LI J., LIN W., LIU A.X., DUSTDAR S. Pyraformer: low-complexity pyramidal attention for long-range time series modeling and forecasting. The Tenth International Conference on Learning Representations, 2022.
 
29.
YANG G., ZHANG Q., YUAN E., ZHANG L. GATE-GRU: A Deep Learning Prediction Model for PM2.5 Coupled with Empirical Modal Decomposition Algorithm. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 32 (2), 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518....
 
30.
HAMILTON M.A., RUSSO R.C., THURSTON R.V. Trimmed Spearman-Karber Method for Estimating Median Lethal Concentrations in Toxicity Bioassays. Environmental Science and Technology. 11 (7), 1977. https://doi.org/10.1021/es6013....
 
31.
WANG R., YE X., HUANG W., LV Z., YAO Y., YANG F., LIU Y., HUO J., DUAN Y. Long-term Trends of PM2.5 Composition during Cold Seasons in Shanghai after Releasing Clean Air Action Plan. Aerosol and Air Quality Research. 24 (11), 240085, 2024. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2....
 
32.
CURLEY L., HOLLAND R., KHAN M.A.H., SHALLCROSS D.E. Investigating the Effect of Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Emission Reduction on Surface-Level Ozone (O3) during Summer across the UK. Atmosphere. 15 (6), 733, 2024. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos1....
 
33.
TOLSTIKHIN I.O., HOULSBY N., KOLESNIKOV A., BEYER L., ZHAI X., UNTERTHINER T., YUNG J., STEINER A., KEYSERS D., USZKOREIT J. Mlp-mixer: An all-mlp architecture for vision. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. 34, 24261, 2021.
 
34.
JALALI M.W., SAIDI B., FARAHMAND H., PANAH M.A.R., SARUHAN E.N. Scalable AI-driven air quality forecasting and classification for public health applications. Discover Atmosphere. 3 (1), 25, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44292....
 
35.
ISLAM F.S. A Comprehensive Analysis of Air Pollution in Dhaka City, Bangladesh, and the Application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Enhanced Management and Forecasting. International Journal of Applied and Natural Sciences. 3 (1), 131, 2025. https://doi.org/10.61424/ijans....
 
36.
WU Y., CHEN Y., SU X., LIU Z. PolluVCCT: Multi-Scale Hybrid Learning for Robust Air Pollution Forecasting Across Diverse Climate Zones. SIGKDD. 2025.
 
37.
POELZL M., KERN R., KECORIUS S., LOVRIĆ M. Exploration of transfer learning techniques for the prediction of PM10. Scientific Reports. 15 (1), 2919, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598....
 
38.
QIAN W., CHEN J. Regional transport of PM2.5 and O3 based on complex network method and chemical transport model in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 127 (5), 2022. https://doi.org/10.7185/gold20....
 
39.
CHEN G., WANG Y., TAO C., ZHANG Z., ZHOU M., YAN R., HUANG D.D., WANG H., ZHANG H. Nitrate-driven extreme winter PM2.5 pollution in Shanghai, China. npj Clean Air. 1 (1), 28, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44407....
 
40.
LIU B., WANG L., ZHANG L., BAI K., CHEN X., ZHAO G., YIN H., CHEN N., LI R., XIN J. Evaluating urban and nonurban PM2.5 variability under clean air actions in China during 2010-2022 based on a new high-quality dataset. International Journal of Digital Earth. 17 (1), 2310734, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/175389....
 
41.
PANDA S., SINHA A. Advanced AI-Driven Approaches for Predicting Air Quality: A Comprehensive Review. Journal of Computational Analysis & Applications. 33 (6), 2024.
 
42.
DIVYA J., JAISON B. Enhancing Air Quality Prediction with Hybrid Deep Learning Techniques: A Review. IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSCSA....
 
43.
MA Z., WANG B., LUO W., JIANG J., LIU D., WEI H., LUO H. Air pollutant prediction model based on transfer learning two-stage attention mechanism. Scientific Reports. 14 (1), 7385, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598....
 
44.
ZHANG Y., VU T.V., SUN J., HE J., SHEN X., LIN W., ZHANG X., ZHONG J., GAO W., WANG Y. Significant changes in chemistry of fine particles in wintertime Beijing from 2007 to 2017: impact of clean air actions. Environmental Science & Technology. 54 (3), 1344, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.es....
 
45.
ORGANIZATION W.H. WHO global air quality guidelines: particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide. World Health Organization, 2021.
 
46.
GENG G., XIAO Q., LIU S., LIU X., CHENG J., ZHENG Y., XUE T., TONG D., ZHENG B., PENG Y. Tracking air pollution in China: near real-time PM2.5 retrievals from multisource data fusion. Environmental Science & Technology. 55 (17), 12106, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.es....
 
47.
ZHANG Q., ZHENG Y., TONG D., SHAO M., WANG S., ZHANG Y., XU X., WANG J., HE H., LIU W. Drivers of improved PM2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (49), 24463, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1....
 
eISSN:2083-5906
ISSN:1230-1485
Journals System - logo
Scroll to top