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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
The Impact and Mechanism of the Chinese
Certified Emission Reduction Policy
on Carbon Emission Intensity
1
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2
Academy of Chinese Ecological Progress and Forestry Development Studies, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing
210037, China
3
Jiangsu JITRI IC Application Technology Innovation Center
Submission date: 2024-07-07
Final revision date: 2024-10-16
Acceptance date: 2024-12-16
Online publication date: 2025-03-10
Publication date: 2026-01-30
Corresponding author
Yan Chen
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China, China
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2026;35(1):1469-1485
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Under the constraints of the “dual carbon” targets, relaunching the Chinese Certified Emission
Reduction Policy (CCER) is essential to supplement and improve China’s carbon market trading.
This paper employs interrupted time series analysis and static panel models to assess the impact
and mechanism of the CCER policy on carbon emission intensity from 30 provinces in China,
comprehensively revealing the policy’s role in promoting the synergy of regional emission reductions.
The study finds that: (1) After the implementation of the CCER policy in 2015, carbon emission
intensity significantly decreased, while the suspension of the policy in 2017 led to a short-term increase
in carbon emission intensity. Despite this rise, the long-term emission reduction trend persisted, though
with a diminished effect. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy has a pronounced effect on
suppressing carbon emission intensity in the eastern areas with higher technological innovation and
non-industrial bases. (2) Higher CCER trading volume can raise carbon emission intensity, but stable
carbon market transaction prices help reduce it. The CCER policy helps decrease carbon emission
intensity by incentivizing green technological innovation and optimizing energy structure, while
it has a negative impact through the scale effect. (3) A significant spatial positive correlation exists
in carbon emission intensity’s temporal and spatial distribution. The CCER policy also exerts
a restraining influence on neighboring regions through its spatial spillover effect.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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