Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Plant Magnolia wilsonii Using MaxEnt under Climate Change in China
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Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang 621000, Sichuan, China
Engineering Research Center for Forest and Grassland Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Mianyang normal university, Mianyang 621000, Sichuan, China
College of Environment and Resources, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang Sichuan 621010, China
Yi Huang   

Mianyang Normal University, China
Submission date: 2022-03-14
Final revision date: 2022-04-02
Acceptance date: 2022-04-09
Online publication date: 2022-06-20
Publication date: 2022-09-01
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2022;31(5):4435–4445
Changes in future climate will have a great impact on biodiversity. Magnolia wilsonii, an endangered tree native to China, has important scientific and medicinal value occurring in western Sichuan, northern Yunnan and western Guizhou. And it has severely declined and become critically endangered in the last years due to habitat loss and fragmentation. In this study, we modeled the current and future distributions of M. wilsonii under three representative concentration pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the AUC values of all simulations were greater than 0.940. The key environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of M. wilsonii were the annual precipitation (573-1671 mm), the min temperature of coldest month (10.1ºC-16.2ºC), the coefficient of variation in precipitation seasonality (11.5-160.9), and the standard deviation of temperature seasonality (404.7- 1765.6). The area of the highly suitable habitat was 29.66×104 km2, mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Guangxi. Yunnan had the largest suitable habitat, occupying 13.23×104 km2, accounting for 44.6% of the highly suitable area. Under the three climate change scenarios, the areas of the suitable habitat of M. wilsonii showed increasing trends, the geometric center of the highly suitable habitat would move to the northeast. Our results can provide a scientific basis for the protection, cultivation, management and sustainable use of M. wilsonii.