This paper employs a parametric Malmquist index to measure carbon emission performance and its dynamic variation of China’s thermal power generation sector from 2003 to 2013. The parametric stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) is applied to estimate the total factor carbon emission performance (TFCP), while the Malmquist carbon emission performance index (MCPI) is used to measure the dynamic change. The main findings are as follows:
1. The average value of TFCP shows an increasing trend but varies among regions. In addition, the investment-based regulations and the efficiency of fuel utilization have positive effects on TFCP, while the effects of R&D expenditure and fee-based regulations are insignificant.
2. The MCPI of China’s provincial thermal power industry grew by an average of 3.1% annually and was mainly driven by the efficiency change component.
3. According to the average levels of TFCP and MCPI, the 30 provinces are divided into four categories, which provide a scientific basis for policymakers to implement regional-oriented strategies for the improvement of both TFCP and MCPI.