A Systematic Simulating Assessment within Reach Greenhouse Gas Target by Reducing PM2.5 Concentrations in China
Wei Li1,2, Can Lu1,2, Yi Ding1
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1School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University,
No.619 Yonghua Street, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China
2Center for Innovation Development and Energy Economics Research, North China Electric Power University,
Baoding, Hebei 071003, China
Submission date: 2016-10-24
Final revision date: 2016-11-07
Acceptance date: 2016-11-08
Online publication date: 2017-03-22
Publication date: 2017-03-22
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2017;26(2):683-698
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and governing pollutant emissions would cause real synergy. Therefore, China has proposed achieving the target of reducing fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations to 35 ug/m3, as it pollutes the most. The prioritized purpose of this dissertation is aimed at constructing a comprehensive framework by integrating the PM2.5 target, influencing factors, and countermeasures together to shed some new light on the PM2.5 governing problem. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model containing a pollution abatement block is first introduced. Accordingly, four different scenarios about the PM2.5 target implementation plan are designed for analyzing the impacts on China’s macroeconomics, energy demand, and environmental quality, and we establish a PM2.5 system dynamics model in the principle of system dynamics theory afterward. Subsequently, the model offers six various countermeasures in terms of declining the concentration of PM2.5 on the basis of the causality diagram. Consequently, the scenario analysis and system simulation results illustrate that the decline in PM2.5 concentration at annual average rates of 3.07%, 4.61%, and 1.53% from 2016 to 2020, 2021 to 2025, and 2026 to 2030 is significantly beneficial for achieving the PM2.5 target. Additionally, three effective countermeasures could be approximately reaching the PM2.5 concentration target in 2030.
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