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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Research on Collaborative Security Prediction
and Countermeasure Simulation
of Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Jiangsu
Province under Extreme Weather Conditions
1
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2
Jiangsu JITRI IC Application Technology Innovation Center, Wuxi 214101, China
Submission date: 2024-11-29
Acceptance date: 2025-02-16
Online publication date: 2025-03-28
Publication date: 2026-01-30
Corresponding author
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2026;35(1):1101-1116
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Water, energy, and food are relatively independent yet closely interconnected feedback
systems. Frequent extreme weather significantly threatens the security of the water-energy-food
nexus. Exploring the impact of extreme weather on the nexus’s security and formulating targeted
countermeasures have become the key to achieving sustainable development. Based on system
dynamics, this paper constructs a model of the water-energy-food nexus under extreme weather
conditions. It predicts the supply and demand of the nexus in Jiangsu Province from 2022 to 2030
under a baseline scenario and different extreme weather scenarios to explore the impact of extreme
weather on the collaborative security of the nexus. On this basis, regulatory variables are set from
one or both of the supply and demand sides to conduct countermeasure simulation research. The results
show that: (1) Under the current trend, the resource supply-demand index of the nexus in Jiangsu
Province will show a downward trend from 2022 to 2030. (2) Extreme weather has varying degrees
of impact on the security of the nexus in Jiangsu Province. Extreme drought has the most significant
impact, followed by extreme high temperatures, and extreme precipitation has the slightest impact.
(3) Under extremely high temperatures, countermeasures such as food conservation and reducing energy
consumption per unit of industrial added value can most effectively strengthen the collaborative security
of the nexus in Jiangsu Province. Under extreme precipitation, countermeasures such as boosting R&D
investment and food conservation are the most effective. Under extreme drought, countermeasures such
as increasing R&D investment, conserving water and food, and expanding water-saving irrigation areas
are more effective.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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