Shanxi Province is an important energy and heavy chemical industry base in China, which leads to its large carbon emissions. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out carbon emission prediction research in Shanxi Province to provide support for the development of carbon reduction policies. In this paper, a complex system model of economy, energy, and carbon emissions in Shanxi Province was established by using the system dynamics method, and the impact of different policies on carbon emissions was analyzed through policy experiment research. Specific conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2022 to 2035, carbon emissions in Shanxi Province generally increased first and then decreased, reaching a peak around 2031, with the highest carbon emissions of about 628 million tons in the economic policy scenario (QJ2) and the lowest carbon emissions of about 576 million tons in the equilibrium scenario (QJ5). The overall carbon emission intensity showed a downward trend, with an average decrease of 45.14% in different scenarios after 2022, among which the lowest value was 44.28% and the highest value was 46.87%. (2) Strengthening energy structure adjustment policies and energy conservation policies are the main ways to reduce total carbon emissions. Economic growth will lead to an increase in carbon emissions. In order to further reduce carbon emissions, it is recommended to give priority to developing high-quality productivity, vigorously adjusting energy structure, and improving energy efficiency.