ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Simulation of Shanxi Multi-Scenario Carbon
Emission Based on System Dynamics
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1
Taiyuan Institute of Technology; No. 31 Xinlan Road, Jiancaoping District; Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
2
Chinese Academy of Social Science; Address: No. 5 Jianguomen Street, Beijing, China
3
Shanxi University, Shanxi Laboratory for Yellow River; No. 92 Wucheng Road, Xiaodian District,
Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
4
Taiyuan University of Technology; No.79 West Yingze ST, Wanbailing District, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
Submission date: 2024-10-19
Final revision date: 2025-02-06
Acceptance date: 2025-03-30
Online publication date: 2025-06-03
Corresponding author
Xiaohua Ge
Taiyuan Institute of Technology; No. 31 Xinlan Road, Jiancaoping District; Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
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ABSTRACT
Shanxi Province is an important energy and heavy chemical industry base in China, which
leads to its large carbon emissions. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out carbon emission
prediction research in Shanxi Province to provide support for the development of carbon reduction
policies. In this paper, a complex system model of economy, energy, and carbon emissions in Shanxi
Province was established by using the system dynamics method, and the impact of different policies
on carbon emissions was analyzed through policy experiment research. Specific conclusions are as
follows: (1) From 2022 to 2035, carbon emissions in Shanxi Province generally increased first and then
decreased, reaching a peak around 2031, with the highest carbon emissions of about 628 million tons
in the economic policy scenario (QJ2) and the lowest carbon emissions of about 576 million tons in the
equilibrium scenario (QJ5). The overall carbon emission intensity showed a downward trend, with an
average decrease of 45.14% in different scenarios after 2022, among which the lowest value was 44.28%
and the highest value was 46.87%. (2) Strengthening energy structure adjustment policies and energy
conservation policies are the main ways to reduce total carbon emissions. Economic growth will lead to
an increase in carbon emissions. In order to further reduce carbon emissions, it is recommended to give
priority to developing high-quality productivity, vigorously adjusting energy structure, and improving
energy efficiency.