ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Population Flow, Urban Innovation and
Carbon Emissions from Urban Agglomerations:
A Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on
Major Urban Agglomerations in China
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School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
Submission date: 2025-05-19
Final revision date: 2025-08-21
Acceptance date: 2025-08-31
Online publication date: 2025-11-18
Corresponding author
Fulin Wei
School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, No.121 of Huaxiang Zhangjialukou, 100071, Beijing, China
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ABSTRACT
Exploring the impact of population flow on carbon emissions in urban agglomerations against the
background of urban innovation is of great significance for promoting regional low-carbon coordinated
development and responding to climate change. Taking China’s three major urban agglomerations
as the research object, this study introduces spatial factors to analyze the impact and mechanisms of
heterogeneous population mobility on carbon emissions in the context of innovation. The findings
reveal the following: (1) Carbon emissions in China’s three major urban agglomerations exhibit
spatial correlation, and the spatial effects of different types of labor mobility on carbon emissions are
complex. High-skilled labor flow helps reduce carbon emissions and mitigates the adverse impact of
urban innovation on carbon emissions; low-skilled labor flow increases carbon emissions but is difficult
to integrate with urban innovation, and the impact of urban innovation on carbon emissions does not
change with the influence of low-skilled labor mobility. (2) There are significant differences in the spatial
spillover effects of heterogeneous population flows on carbon emissions among China’s three major
urban agglomerations. Due to the stronger administrative characteristics of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
urban agglomeration compared to other urban agglomerations, the spatial spillover effects of carbon
emissions from heterogeneous population flows are not significant. In contrast, the Yangtze River Delta
and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations have relatively higher levels of integration, resulting in
significant spatial spillover effects of carbon emissions from heterogeneous population flows. The article
concludes by suggesting that institutional barriers hindering population mobility should be continuously
removed, the positive interaction among cities should be activated, and the low-carbon development of
urban agglomerations should be promoted.