About the Journal
In Memory of Professor Jerzy Radecki
Editorial Office
Editorial Board
Scope
Impact Factor
Indexed in...
Journal Impact Factor contributing items
Contact
Subscription
Current issue
Online first
Notes to Authors
Frequently Asked Questions
Editorial policies
PJOES Publication Policy Overview
PJOES Peer Review Policy
PJOES Research Ethics and Malpractice Policy
PJOES Plagiarism Policy
PJOES Conflict of Interest Policy
PJOES Open Access Policy
PJOES Instructions for Reviewers
Generative AI and AI-Assisted Technologies Policy
Archive
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Forces
of Land Development Intensity in China:
Evidence from 287 Prefecture-Level Cities
1
School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
2
Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information
Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Submission date: 2024-07-31
Final revision date: 2024-10-20
Acceptance date: 2024-12-29
Online publication date: 2025-02-25
Publication date: 2026-01-30
Corresponding author
Zheng Yang
School of Geographical, Geomatics and Planning,, Jiangsu Normal University, 221116, Xuzhou, China
School of Geographical, Geomatics and Planning,, Jiangsu Normal University, 221116, Xuzhou, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2026;35(1):1427-1438
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics and determinants of land development intensity (LDI)
is crucial for understanding urban economic development and guiding urban planning and land
use. Focusing on 287 prefecture-level and above cities (PLAC) in China, this study employs spatial
analysis, Ordinary Least Squares, and Geographically Weighted Regression models to investigate the
spatiotemporal dynamics of LDI and its driving forces. The study draws the following conclusions:
(1) The spatial differences in LDI across China are significant, showing a gradual increase from west
to east. High LDI values are primarily concentrated in the North China Plain and major coastal urban
agglomerations, with provincial capital cities also exhibiting high LDI, forming a "core-periphery"
spatial structure. From 2010 to 2020, China's LDI has been on an upward trend. The North China Plain,
the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta regions have experienced the most rapid growth in
LDI, with large cities, mainly provincial capitals, also growing at a faster rate. Additionally, China's
urban LDI demonstrates significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (2) In 2010, China's LDI was
influenced by economic development, urban features, natural conditions, land investment intensity,
and financial investment intensity. By 2020, the driving factors had evolved to include urbanization,
economic development, urban features, natural conditions, and financial investment intensity. The
degree of influence of each explanatory variable on LDI varies across China. This study provides
valuable insights for policymakers in China and similar countries, helping them formulate more detailed
and specific land development policies.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
REFERENCES (38)
1.
MOONEY H.A., DURAIAPPAH A., LARIGAUDERIE A. Evolution of natural and social science interactions in global change research programs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 (Suppl.1), 3665, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1... PMid:23297237 PMCid:PMC3586612.
2.
STERLING S.M., DUCHARNE A., POLCHER J. The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle. Nature Climate Change, 3 (4), 385, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclima....
3.
ZHANG P., YANG D., QIN M., JING W. Spatial heterogeneity analysis and driving forces exploring of built-up land development intensity in Chinese prefecture-level cities and implications for future urban land intensive use. Land Use Policy, 99, 104958, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.land....
4.
GAO J., WEI Y.D., CHEN W., CHEN J. Economic transition and urban land expansion in provincial China. Habitat International, 44, 461, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habi....
5.
HUANG X., HUANG X., LIU M., WANG B., ZHAO Y. Spatial-temporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Land Development Intensity in the Western China from 2000 to 2015. Chinese Geographical Science, 30 (1), 16, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769....
6.
SHU C., XIE H., JIANG J., CHEN Q. Is Urban Land Development Driven by Economic Development or Fiscal Revenue Stimuli in China? Land Use Policy, 77, 107, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.land....
7.
BREN D'AMOUR C., REITSMA F., BAIOCCHI G., BARTHEL S., GUNERALP B., ERB K.H., HABERL H., CREUTZIG F., SETO K.C. Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (34), 8939, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1... PMid:28028219 PMCid:PMC5576776.
8.
CHEN J., GAO J., CHEN W. Urban land expansion and the transitional mechanisms in Nanjing, China. Habitat International, 53, 274, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habi....
9.
GUO R., WU T., WU X., LUIGI S., WANG Y. Simulation of Urban Land Expansion Under Ecological Constraints in Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration, China. Chinese Geographical Science, 32 (3), 438, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769....
10.
LI G., SUN S., FANG C. The varying driving forces of urban expansion in China: Insights from a spatial-temporal analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning, 174, 63, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.land....
11.
LIU F., ZHANG Z., ZHAO X., LIU B., WANG X., YI L., ZUO L., XU J., HU S., SUN F., WANG Y. Urban Expansion of China from the 1970s to 2020 Based on Remote Sensing Technology. Chinese Geographical Science, 31 (5), 765, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769....
12.
MUSTAFA A., VAN ROMPAEY A., COOLS M., SAADI I., TELLER J. Addressing the determinants of built-up expansion and densification processes at the regional scale. Urban Studies, 55 (15), 3279, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1177/004209....
13.
OUESLATI W., ALVANIDES S., GARROD G. Determinants of urban sprawl in European cities. Urban Studies, 52 (9), 1594, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1177/004209... PMid:26321770 PMCid:PMC4540171.
14.
GONG J., CHEN W., LIU Y., WANG J. The intensity change of urban development land: Implications for the city master plan of Guangzhou, China. Land Use Policy, 40, 91, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.land....
15.
COLSAET A., LAURANS Y., LEVREL H. What drives land take and urban land expansion? A systematic review. Land Use Policy, 79, 339, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.land....
16.
DENG X., HUANG J., ROZELLE S., UCHIDA E. Growth, population and industrialization, and urban land expansion of China. Journal of Urban Economics, 63 (1), 96, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.....
17.
HE C., ZHOU Y., HUANG Z. Fiscal decentralization, political centralization, and land urbanization in China. Urban Geography, 37 (3), 436, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1080/027236....
18.
PING Y.C. Explaining Land Use Change in a Guangdong County: The Supply Side of the Story. The China Quarterly, 207, 626, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1017/S03057....
19.
DENG X., HUANG J., SCOTT R., EMI U. Economic Growth and the Expansion of Urban Land in China. Urban Studies, 47 (4), 813, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1177/004209....
20.
DI X., HOU X., WANG Y., WU L. Spatial-temporal characteristics of land use intensity of coastal zone in China during 2000-2010. Chinese Geographical Science, 25 (1), 51, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769....
21.
LIU Y., YU H., LIU D., ZHU L. Spatial differentiation mechanisms of the pattern evolution of construction land development intensity in Northeast China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 73 (5), 818, 2018.
22.
WU R., LI Z., WANG S. The varying driving forces of urban land expansion in China: Insights from a spatial-temporal analysis. Science Of The Total Environment, 766, 142591, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scit... PMid:33601670.
23.
ZHOU T., JIANG G., ZHANG R., ZHENG Q., MA W., ZHAO Q., LI Y. Addressing the rural in situ urbanization (RISU) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: Spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism. Cities, 75, 59, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.citi....
24.
JIANG L., DENG X., SETO K.C. Multi-level modeling of urban expansion and cultivated land conversion for urban hotspot counties in China. Landscape and Urban Planning, 108 (2-4), 131, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.land....
25.
SETO K.C., FRAGKIAS M., GÜNERALP B., REILLY M.K. A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion. PLoS ONE, 6 (8), e23777, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1371/journa... PMid:21876770 PMCid:PMC3158103.
26.
LIU T., QI Y., CAO G., LIU H. Spatial patterns, driving forces, and urbanization effects of China's internal migration: County-level analysis based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25 (2), 236, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442....
27.
LI H., WEI Y.D., LIAO F.H., HUANG Z. Administrative hierarchy and urban land expansion in transitional China. Applied Geography, 56, 177, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apge....
28.
HO S.P.S., LIN G.C.S. Non-Agricultural Land Use in Post-Reform China. China Quarterly, (179), 758, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1017/S03057....
29.
YANG Q., DUAN X., JIN Z., WANG L., WANG Y. Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing mechanism of urban land development intensity in the Yangtze River Delta. Resources Science, 42 (4), 723, 2020. https://doi.org/10.18402/resci....
30.
YUE W., ZHANG L., LIU Y. Measuring sprawl in large Chinese cities along the Yangtze River via combined single and multidimensional metrics. Habitat International, 57, 43, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habi....
31.
YANG Q., WANG L., LI Y., FAN Y., LIU C. Urban land development intensity: New evidence behind economic transition in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 32 (12), 2453, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442....
32.
LIU L., LIU Z. The Landscape and Evolution of Rural Planning in China. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 33 (5), 5779, 2024. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes... PMid:19649048.
33.
TAN S., LIU Q., HAN S. Spatial-temporal evolution of coupling relationship between land development intensity and resources environment carrying capacity in China. Journal of Environmental Management, 301, 113778, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv... PMid:34571472.
34.
YI Z., ZHOU W., RAZZAQ A., YANG Y. Land resource management and sustainable development: Evidence from China's regional data. Resources Policy, 84, 103732, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reso....
35.
YANG Z., ZHU H., ZHANG X., OU X. Examining the Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Determinants of Land Urbanization in Prefecture-level Cities, China. Chinese Geographical Science, 34 (1), 19, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769....
36.
YANG Z., OU X., ZHU H. Population Dynamics and Its Driving Forces in China from 2000 to 2020. Sustainability, 15 (12), 9415, 2023. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1512....
37.
SHI Q., LIU T., ZHUO Y., PENG R. People and Places in the 2020 Census: New Geographies of Population Growth in China? The Professional Geographer, 1, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/003301....
38.
XU F., WANG Z., CHI G., ZHANG Z. The impacts of population and agglomeration development on land use intensity: New evidence behind urbanization in China. Land Use Policy, 95, 104639, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.land....
Share
RELATED ARTICLE
| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
