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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Carbon
Sequestration Ecological Carrying Capacity
and Examination of Its Influencing Factors
– Anhui Province as an Example
1
School of Economics and Management, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232001, China
2
School of Mathematics and Big Data, School of Economics and Management, Anhui University
of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232001, China
3
Huaihe River Water Resources Protection Scientific Research Institute, Huaihe River Basin Water Resources Protection
Bureau, Bengbu, 233060, China
4
School of Earth and Environment, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232001, China
Submission date: 2025-01-11
Final revision date: 2025-03-17
Acceptance date: 2025-04-06
Online publication date: 2025-06-02
Corresponding author
Ting Wu
School of Mathematics and Big Data, Anhui University of Science& Technology, University of Science and Technology, 232001, Huainan, China
School of Mathematics and Big Data, Anhui University of Science& Technology, University of Science and Technology, 232001, Huainan, China
KEYWORDS
carbon sequestration ecological carrying capacityspatial and temporal evolutioninfluencing factorsrandom forests
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
A comprehensive analysis of the regional and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon
sequestration ecological carrying capacity (ESC), along with their affecting factors, is crucial for
attaining the “double carbon” objective. This study analyzes the regional and temporal distribution of
ESC in Anhui Province from 2008 to 2022, employing the Moran index and cold hotspot analysis.
The principal social, economic, and environmental influencing factors of 16 prefectural-level cities
in Anhui Province have been identified using the Random Forest Model (RFM), and the spatial effects of
these factors have been examined through the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The ESC in Anhui Province
revealed that southern Anhui had a bigger capacity than central Anhui, which surpasses northern
Anhui. The ESC in Anhui Province from 2008 to 2022 demonstrated an initial increase, followed by
a subsequent decline. The ESC in Anhui Province exhibits significant geographic aggregation effects,
with no discernible areas of low ESC and a more stable hotspot region throughout the study period.
Subsequent study indicates that water network density and population size are the primary determinants
of ESC across 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals, exhibiting notable regional spillover effects. The study’s
results offer significant theoretical insights for examining regional ESC and developing low-carbon
solutions.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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