A comprehensive analysis of the regional and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon sequestration ecological carrying capacity (ESC), along with their affecting factors, is crucial for attaining the “double carbon” objective. This study analyzes the regional and temporal distribution of ESC in Anhui Province from 2008 to 2022, employing the Moran index and cold hotspot analysis. The principal social, economic, and environmental influencing factors of 16 prefectural-level cities in Anhui Province have been identified using the Random Forest Model (RFM), and the spatial effects of these factors have been examined through the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The ESC in Anhui Province revealed that southern Anhui had a bigger capacity than central Anhui, which surpasses northern Anhui. The ESC in Anhui Province from 2008 to 2022 demonstrated an initial increase, followed by a subsequent decline. The ESC in Anhui Province exhibits significant geographic aggregation effects, with no discernible areas of low ESC and a more stable hotspot region throughout the study period. Subsequent study indicates that water network density and population size are the primary determinants of ESC across 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals, exhibiting notable regional spillover effects. The study’s results offer significant theoretical insights for examining regional ESC and developing low-carbon solutions.