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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Climate Change Impacts on Pesticide
Leaching in Agricultural Soils: A PEARL
(Pesticide Emission Assessment at
Regional and Local) Model Assessment for
S-Metolachlor under CMIP6 (Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Scenarios
1
Water and Environmental Studies Center, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
2
Date Palm Research Center of Excellence, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
3
Department of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota, 1991 Upper Buford Cir, Falcon Heights,
Minnesota, 55108, USA
Submission date: 2026-01-13
Final revision date: 2026-04-01
Acceptance date: 2026-04-13
Online publication date: 2026-10-24
Corresponding author
Abdul Ghafoor
Water and Environmental Studies Center, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
Water and Environmental Studies Center, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
Muhammad Tahir
Department of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota, 1991 Upper Buford Cir, Falcon Heights, Minnesota, 55108, USA
Department of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota, 1991 Upper Buford Cir, Falcon Heights, Minnesota, 55108, USA
KEYWORDS
pesticide leachingclimate changegroundwater contaminationPEARL modelregulatory thresholddrinking water qualityS-metolachlor
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Climate change represents a significant risk to groundwater quality by altering the dynamics of
pesticide transport in agricultural soils. This study assesses the influence of expected climate change
using the PEARL (Pesticide Emission Assessment at Regional and Local scales) framework on
S-metolachlor pesticide leaching. This analysis was based on agricultural loam soil, a historical baseline
(1981-2010), and two future scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (medium-emission scenario) and SSP5-8.5 (highemission
scenario) from 2041 to 2070. Calibration with field-derived data (DT50 = 18±4 d ays, K oc =
200 mL/g) and validation with groundwater observation data showed increased cumulative pesticide
leaching by +60.5% (SSP2-4.5) and +110.7% (SSP5-8.5) compared to historical data. This indicates that
the concentration might exceed the regulatory limits by a factor of 0.15-0.25 μg/L (compared with the
EU groundwater limit of 0.1 μg/L). Reduced sorption at higher temperatures, together with increased
precipitation, synergistically enhanced pesticide transport. These findings indicate that current pesticide risk assessments may underestimate future groundwater contamination potential, necessitating climateadaptive
regulatory frameworks and management strategies to protect drinking water quality.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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