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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Assessing the Effect of Climatic Factors
and Adaptation on Migration Intention
of the Residents in Gandaki Province, Nepal:
Using Structural Equation Modeling
1
Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
2
Prithvi Narayan Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Nepal
Submission date: 2025-04-12
Final revision date: 2025-09-04
Acceptance date: 2025-11-08
Online publication date: 2026-05-29
Corresponding author
KEYWORDS
climate changeGandaki Provincemigration intentionstructural equation modelingTheory of Planned Behavior
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Climatic variability and its impacts, such as extreme weather events and resource scarcity, are key
drivers of migration, especially in ecologically vulnerable areas like Nepal's hilly and mountain regions.
This study explores how climatic variability, severity, perceived impacts, and adaptation strategies
affect migration intentions in Gandaki Province, Nepal, based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour
(TPB) and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to analyze survey responses
from 493 residents across four districts (Baglung, Myagdi, Mustang, and Lamjung). The results show
that climate change impacts and adaptation efforts positively influence migration intentions and are
significant. Climatic variability and severity have a negative but statistically insignificant relationship
with migration intentions. Additionally, adaptation is a key mediator between the impacts of climate
change and migration intentions, strengthening this link, while its mediating role between variability/
severity and migration remains negative and insignificant. These findings highlight the need for targeted
adaptation policies to address climate-induced migration pressures. Policymakers and institutions
should prioritize resilience-building measures to reduce displacement risks while supporting vulnerable
communities. The purpose of this study is to provide critical insights for evidence-based decisionmaking,
aiding governments and stakeholders in managing the complex relationship between climate
change and human mobility in vulnerable regions.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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