The sustainable development of Tibetan Plateau plant resources is threatened by global climate change. Rhodiola species, valuable in traditional Tibetan medicine, thrive in harsh high-altitude environments but face overharvesting pressure. This study applied the MaxEnt model to project the potential distribution of Rhodiola kirilowii and assess the impacts of future climate change and human activities on its range and habitat centroid. Results show that R. kirilowii is currently concentrated along the borders of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Tibet. Human activities have substantially reduced suitable habitat area. Under future climate scenarios (2050s and 2070s; SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), suitable habitats are projected to expand northwestward, with a notable overall area increase, especially in high-altitude zones. The distribution centroid also shifts northwest, reflecting close links between species distribution and environmental changes. These findings offer key insights into the ecological adaptation and future distribution of Rhodiola species, while supporting conservation and sustainable use planning for wild R. kirilowii.