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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Estimation and Prediction of Carbon Emissions
in the Farmland Ecosystem of Kaifeng City, China
1
Miami College, Henan University, Henan, Kaifeng 475000, China
2
College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Henan, Kaifeng 475000, China
3
Henan Key Laboratory of Earth System Observation and Modeling, Henan, Kaifeng 475000, China
4
College of Engineering, Zhengzhou Technology and Business University, Henan, Zhengzhou, 451400, China
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Submission date: 2024-03-10
Final revision date: 2024-05-11
Acceptance date: 2024-06-30
Online publication date: 2024-10-07
Publication date: 2025-06-06
Yixin Liang
College of Engineering, Zhengzhou Technology and Business University, Henan, Zhengzhou, 451400, China
College of Engineering, Zhengzhou Technology and Business University, Henan, Zhengzhou, 451400, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2025;34(4):4661-4671
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The burning of fossil fuels and unsustainable use of resources and land have resulted in a gradual
increase in global temperatures. Climate change in 2023 indicates that the average global temperature
is already 1.1 ℃ higher than before the Industrial Revolution. Regional measurement of carbon
emissions is crucial for effectively mitigating climate warming. This study estimates the carbon
emissions of the farmland ecosystem in Kaifeng city from 2010 to 2021 based on seven key factors.
The findings indicate that overall carbon emissions have fluctuated and increased over time while the
carbon emission intensity has decreased annually. Through the calculation of the Tapio decoupling
model, it is observed that the decoupling status of the farmland ecosystem in Kaifeng city from 2010
to 2021 has transitioned from weak decoupling to strong decoupling, demonstrating the progress made
towards green and low-carbon agriculture in Kaifeng city. Using the grey prediction model GM (1, 1),
carbon emissions are estimated to reach 1.39×106 t by 2030. This research provides carbon emission
data and trends for the farmland ecosystem in Kaifeng city from 2010 to 2021, explores the decoupling
relationship between farmland ecosystem carbon emissions and the economy, and predicts carbon
emissions until 2030 under current policies. Based on these findings, recommendations for emission
reduction were proposed.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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