Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution of Endangered Relict Tree Species Dipteronia sinensis in China Based on MaxEnt and GIS
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Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang 621000, Sichuan, China
Sichuan Academy of Environmental policy and planning, Chengdu 610093, Sichuan, China
School of Economics and Management, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, Sichuan, China
Submission date: 2021-11-02
Final revision date: 2022-01-24
Acceptance date: 2022-02-24
Online publication date: 2022-05-05
Publication date: 2022-07-12
Corresponding author
Jingtian Yang   

Mianyang Normal University, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2022;31(4):3597-3609
Dipteronia sinensis is an endangered relict tree species in the endemic north temperate flora of China, which has important reference values for studying paleoclimate and species variation as well as geographic zonation changes. Based on 96 occurrence points of D. sinensis and 9 environmental factors, the potential geographic distribution of D. sinensis in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, the Jackknife test was used to assess the important factors governing its potential geographic distribution. In addition, response curves were selected to determine the suitable values of environmental factors and further quantitatively predicted the potential geographic distribution of D. sinensis under the climate changet. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was extremely high, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC training value) of 0.959. The potential suitable habitat area of D. sinensis under current climate condition was 103.9 × 104 km2, mainly located in the central and northwestern regions of China; (2) the main environmental factors affecting the potential geographic distribution of D. sinensis were the temperature factor (min temperature of coldest month) and the precipitation factor (annual precipitation); (3) the area of low, high and total suitable habitats showed a decreasing trend under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in 2070s, and the area of moderately suitable habitats showed an increasing trend under the three scenarios in 2050s and 2070s, and the center of gravity of the potential suitable habitats of D. sinensis would shift to the northwest. Our results can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and resource conservation of D. sinensis.
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