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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Research on Carbon-Peak Prediction
in Zhejiang’s Manufacturing Sector
from a Multi-Scenario Perspective
Based on STIRPAT
1
Economic Management Branch, Shaoxing University Yuanpei College, Shaoxing 312000, China,
2799 Qunxian Middle Road, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, China
2
School of Business Administration, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China,
No.18 Xuezheng Street, Baiyang Street, Qiantang District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China
Submission date: 2024-02-02
Final revision date: 2024-03-31
Acceptance date: 2024-05-24
Online publication date: 2024-09-02
Publication date: 2025-01-28
Corresponding author
Nixi Wei
Economic Management Branch, Shaoxing University Yuanpei College, Shaoxing 312000, China, 2799 Qunxian Middle Road, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, China
Economic Management Branch, Shaoxing University Yuanpei College, Shaoxing 312000, China, 2799 Qunxian Middle Road, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2025;34(3):3343-3356
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Using China’s “dual-carbon” targets as a reference, this paper focuses on Zhejiang’s manufacturing
sector as the research object and constructs a STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population,
affluence, and technology)-based model to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions associated
with manufacturing and predict the peak emission levels. Among these influencing factors, investmentscale
expansion and economic growth contribute to increases in carbon emissions, while energystructure
optimization and reduced carbon-emission intensity help restrain them. Notably, the economic
level is identified as the predominant factor affecting carbon emissions. Among the nine proposed
scenarios, scenario 6, characterized by “medium growth” and “high emission reduction”, emerges
as the most conducive to achieving high-quality and sustainable growth. Its carbon peak is projected
for 2026, reaching 75.15 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, making it the optimal model
for Zhejiang’s manufacturing sector. Based on the findings, two policy directions are proposed: optimize
the energy-consumption structure and accelerate the development and use of low-carbon technologies.
This research offers insights into carbon emissions in Zhejiang’s manufacturing sector, presenting
a blueprint for achieving a carbon peak and sustainable economic growth.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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