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3/2025 vol. 34
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Research on Carbon-Peak Prediction in Zhejiang’s Manufacturing Sector from a Multi-Scenario Perspective Based on STIRPAT
Nixi Wei 1,2
,
 
Duhui Dong 2
 
 
 
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1
Economic Management Branch, Shaoxing University Yuanpei College, Shaoxing 312000, China, 2799 Qunxian Middle Road, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, China
 
2
School of Business Administration, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China, No.18 Xuezheng Street, Baiyang Street, Qiantang District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China
 
 
Submission date: 2024-02-02
 
 
Final revision date: 2024-03-31
 
 
Acceptance date: 2024-05-24
 
 
Online publication date: 2024-09-02
 
 
Publication date: 2025-01-28
 
 
Corresponding author
Nixi Wei   

Economic Management Branch, Shaoxing University Yuanpei College, Shaoxing 312000, China, 2799 Qunxian Middle Road, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, China
 
 
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2025;34(3):3343-3356
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/189293
 
 
Article (PDF)
References (44) Citations (1)
 
KEYWORDS
STIRPAT
manufacturing industry
peak carbon dioxide emissions
scenario prediction
 
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Using China’s “dual-carbon” targets as a reference, this paper focuses on Zhejiang’s manufacturing sector as the research object and constructs a STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology)-based model to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions associated with manufacturing and predict the peak emission levels. Among these influencing factors, investmentscale expansion and economic growth contribute to increases in carbon emissions, while energystructure optimization and reduced carbon-emission intensity help restrain them. Notably, the economic level is identified as the predominant factor affecting carbon emissions. Among the nine proposed scenarios, scenario 6, characterized by “medium growth” and “high emission reduction”, emerges as the most conducive to achieving high-quality and sustainable growth. Its carbon peak is projected for 2026, reaching 75.15 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, making it the optimal model for Zhejiang’s manufacturing sector. Based on the findings, two policy directions are proposed: optimize the energy-consumption structure and accelerate the development and use of low-carbon technologies. This research offers insights into carbon emissions in Zhejiang’s manufacturing sector, presenting a blueprint for achieving a carbon peak and sustainable economic growth.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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Forecasting Industrial Carbon Peaking and Exploring Emission Reduction Pathways at the Metropolitan Scale: A Multi-Scenario STIRPAT Analysis of the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area
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Sustainability
 
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