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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Research on the Demand Forecast for Aviation Transportation Flight Technicians under the Background of Carbon Emission Reduction
Gang Zeng 1,2
,
 
Sana Wuren 1
,
 
Ying Zhang 1
,
 
Yulong Shen 3
,
 
Yue Zhang 1
,
 
Qichen Li 1
 
 
 
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1
School of Economics and Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
 
2
Business School, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
 
3
Flight branch School, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
 
 
Submission date: 2025-02-18
 
 
Final revision date: 2025-05-01
 
 
Acceptance date: 2025-05-13
 
 
Online publication date: 2025-07-21
 
 
Corresponding author
Gang Zeng   

School of Economics and Management, Civil Aviation University of China, 300300, Tianjin, China
 
 
Yulong Shen   

Flight branch School, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
 
 
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/205072
 
 
Article (PDF)
References (32)
 
KEYWORDS
carbon emission reduction
air transportation
flight personnel
gray prediction model
 
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Carbon emissions from the aviation industry pose a considerable challenge to climate change. Direct emissions from aviation into the atmosphere notably impact climate change. To control pollution, the Chinese government has set the goal of “carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”. This article explores the demand forecasting issue for aviation transportation flight technicians based on aviation carbon emission reduction background, which is conducive to the industry’s high-quality development. The article constructs a demand forecasting model for aviation flight technicians based on the gray GM(1,1) model and accurately predicts the number of aviation transportation flight technicians based on historical data from 2014 to 2023. The results show that: 1. The gray GM(1,1) model is reliable for predicting the demand for flight technicians in aviation transportation. Overall, the maximum relative error between the predicted and actual values is 5.09%, the minimum relative error is 0.15%, and the average relative error is 2.015%. 2. The demand for aviation transportation flight technicians shows a positive growth trend. According to the prediction results, the predicted number of civil aviation pilots in China will be 94,744 in 2024 and will reach 187,636 in 2033. 3. The demand forecasting trends for airline transport pilots and commercial pilot licenses are consistent.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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