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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis: Evaluating
Some Candidate Probability Models
1
College of Statistical Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
2
Department of Statistics, Government College University, Faisalabad, Pakistan
3
Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
Submission date: 2025-01-21
Final revision date: 2025-03-27
Acceptance date: 2025-05-13
Online publication date: 2025-07-14
Corresponding author
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The article presents flood frequency modeling of the Sutlej River’s gauging sites located in Pakistan.
The objective is to search for the most cogent mix of probability distribution and parameter estimation
approach for each site separately. Different probability distributions that have been recommended
in the literature are fitted for modeling maximum annual water discharge. Separately for each site,
the parameters of the competing probability distributions are estimated through different estimation
strategies. Different compounds of distributions and estimation methods are compared for each site
through seven different performance metrics, and the most plausible compound is recommended for
that particular gauging station. Results from ranking different models revealed that the generalized
Pareto distribution estimated through the weighted least squares method is most appropriate for both
sites considered for analysis. Finally, based on the selected blend of distribution and estimation method,
an estimate of annual maximum flow, along with 95% parametric bootstrap confidence intervals,
is provided for different return years.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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