In the context of global warming, low-carbon economy has attracted more and more countries’ attention. Using second-generation unit root CIPS test and mean group (MG) estimation, we examined the impact of CO₂ emissions and economic loss on forest productivity with panel data on 30 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2020.The results showed that CO₂ emissions and economic loss had significant negative impacts on it, technical innovation had positive impacts on it, and the share of secondary industry had negative impacts on it. Regarding regional heterogeneity, CO₂ emissions in west China had the greatest impact on forest productivity, followed by east China. The coefficients of economic loss in west, east and middle China were all negative, but those in east and middle China did not pass significance test. The coefficients of technical innovation in east and west China were positive, with the coefficient in east China not passing significance test. In order to improve forest productivity and achieve carbon neutrality, it is necessary to reduce CO₂ emissions, curb economic losses caused by factors like environmental pollution, natural disasters, geological disasters and forest fires, improve technological innovation, promote industrial upgrade, and implement differentiated policies based on local conditions.