About the Journal
In Memory of Professor Jerzy Radecki
Editorial Office
Editorial Board
Scope
Impact Factor
Indexed in...
Journal Impact Factor contributing items
Contact
Subscription
Current issue
Online first
Notes to Authors
Frequently Asked Questions
Editorial policies
PJOES Publication Policy Overview
PJOES Peer Review Policy
PJOES Research Ethics and Malpractice Policy
PJOES Plagiarism Policy
PJOES Conflict of Interest Policy
PJOES Open Access Policy
PJOES Instructions for Reviewers
Generative AI and AI-Assisted Technologies Policy
Archive
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Driving Factors and Early Warning System
for Carbon Emissions in China’s Export Trade
1
School of Finance and Trade Zhuhai College of Science and Technology, Zhuhai,China
2
School of Economics, Hunan University of Finance and Economics, Changsha, China
Submission date: 2024-07-20
Final revision date: 2024-10-27
Acceptance date: 2024-12-16
Online publication date: 2025-02-25
Publication date: 2026-01-30
Corresponding author
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2026;35(1):1401-1414
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
This paper systematically examines carbon emissions from China’s export trade (2013-2022) amid
the rising conflict between economic globalization and environmental protection. Using the Tapio
decoupling and LMDI models, the spatiotemporal characteristics and key drivers of these emissions are
identified, and a gray relational early warning system is introduced. Findings reveal that the primary
contributor to carbon emissions is the expansion of export trade, with the industrial sector as the largest
source. While occasional energy intensity and structure improvements have reduced emissions, the
overall trend remains upward. Policy recommendations include optimizing energy structure, boosting
efficiency, advancing industrial upgrades, and promoting green logistics to support China’s “dual
carbon” goals and foster sustainable economic-environmental development.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
REFERENCES (47)
1.
ZHAO X., ZHU J., YIN K., DING G., HE C. Quantitative impact analysis of cross-border tourism on global food greenhouse gas emissions. *Resources, Conservation & Recycling Advances*. 22, 200215, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcra....
2.
PHADKANTHA R., TANSUCHAT R. Dynamic impacts of energy efficiency, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions: Evidence from Markov Switching model. *Energy Reports*. 9, 332, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr....
3.
PURWONO R., SUGIHARTI L., ESQUIVIAS M.A., FADLIYANTI L., RAHMAWATI Y., WIJIMULAWIANI B.S. The impact of tourism, urbanization, globalization, and renewable energy on carbon emissions: Testing the inverted N-shape environmental Kuznets curve. *Social Sciences & Humanities Open*. 10, 100917, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssah....
4.
RAIHAN A., VOUMIK L.C., RIDWAN M., RIDZUAN A.R., JAAFFAR A.H., YUSOFF N.Y.M. From growth to green: Navigating the complexities of economic development, energy sources, health spending, and carbon emissions in Malaysia. *Energy Reports*. 10, 4318, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr....
5.
DEMIRAL M., DEMIRAL Ö. Global value chains participation and trade-embodied net carbon exports in group of seven and emerging seven countries. *Journal of Environmental Management*. 347, 119027, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv... PMid:37757690.
6.
ZHONG S., GOH T., SU B. Patterns and drivers of embodied carbon intensity in international exports: The role of trade and environmental policies. *Energy Economics*. 114, 106313, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enec....
7.
GAVARD C., WINCHESTER N., PALTSEV S. Limited trading of emissions permits as a climate cooperation mechanism? US-China and EU-China examples. *Energy Economics*. 58, 95, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enec....
8.
KHOSLA R., SAGAR A., MATHUR A. Deploying Low-carbon Technologies in Developing Countries: A view from India's buildings sector. *Environmental Policy and Governance*. 27 (2), 149, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.17....
9.
WYCKOFF A.W., ROOP J.M. The embodiment of carbon in imports of manufactured products: Implications for international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions. *Energy Policy*. 22 (3), 187, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1016/0301-4....
10.
AICHELE R., FELBERMAYR G. Kyoto and Carbon Leakage: An Empirical Analysis of the Carbon Content of Bilateral Trade. *The Review of Economics and Statistics*. 97 (1), 104, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a....
11.
NAM H.-J., RYU D. Does trade openness promote economic growth in developing countries? *Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money*. 93, 101985, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intf....
12.
CELIK A., BAJJA S., RADOINE H., CHENAL J., BOUYGHRISSI S. Effects of urbanization and international trade on economic growth, productivity, and employment: Case of selected countries in Africa. *Heliyon*. 10 (13), e33539, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heli... PMid:39040316 PMCid:PMC11261787.
13.
CHANG F., ZHANG H., SONG J., YU R., ZHANG X., LI H., WANG J., KAN Z., LI Y. Once-middle amount of straw interlayer enhances saline soil quality and sunflower yield in semi-arid regions of China: Evidence from a four-year experiment. *Journal of Environmental Management*. 344, 118530, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv... PMid:37480635.
14.
HUANG Y., WANG Y., PENG J., LI F., ZHU L., ZHAO H., SHI R. Can China achieve its 2030 and 2060 CO₂ commitments? Scenario analysis based on the integration of LEAP model with LMDI decomposition. *Science of The Total Environment*. 888, 164151, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scit... PMid:37196960.
15.
YANG S., ZHU Z., FU W., HU S. Tele-connection of embodied carbon emissions from industries in China's trade: A complex network analysis. *Journal of Environmental Management*. 366, 121652, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv... PMid:38971069.
16.
YI Y., GENG Y., YANG M. Has China-ASEAN Trade opening increased China's carbon emissions? *Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment*. 21 (2), 52, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjpr....
17.
ZHU Q., XU C., LEE C.-C. Trade-induced carbon-economic inequality within China: Measurement, sources, and determinants. *Energy Economics*. 136, 107731, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enec....
18.
CHENG Y., ZHAO L., YI H., WANG C., WANG K., ZHEN J. What network roles affect the decline of the embodied carbon emission reduction pressure in China's manufacturing sector foreign trade? *Journal of Cleaner Production*. 449, 141771, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcle....
19.
WANG W., CHEN Y., PEI X. Can agricultural trade openness facilitate agricultural carbon reduction? Evidence from Chinese provincial data. *Journal of Cleaner Production*. 441, 140877, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcle....
20.
DONG L., WANG Z., ZHOU Y. Public Participation and the Effect of Environmental Governance in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. *Sustainability*. 15 (5), 4442, 2023. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1505....
21.
MAJI I.K., SAARI M.Y., BELLO U.A. Institutional quality, green trade and carbon emissions in sub-Saharan Africa. *Cleaner Energy Systems*. 6, 100086, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cles....
22.
GROSSMAN G.M., KRUEGER A.B. Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. *CEPR Discussion Papers*. 8 (2), 223, 1992. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3914.
23.
PANAYOTOU T. Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development. *Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy*. 4 (1), 1993.
24.
WANG Q., SU M. The effects of urbanization and industrialization on decoupling economic growth from carbon emission - A case study of China. *Sustainable Cities and Society*. 51, 101758, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.....
25.
ZHA J., DAI J., MA S., CHEN Y., WANG X. How to decouple tourism growth from carbon emissions? A case study of Chengdu, China. *Tourism Management Perspectives*. 39, 100849, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.....
26.
LIU T., YANG T. Study on Carbon Emission and Its Influencing Factors in China's Tourism Industry. *Polish Journal of Environmental Studies*. 33 (6), 6259, 2024. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes... PMid:31296281.
27.
CHEN Y., ZHU X., ZENG A. Decoupling analysis between economic growth and aluminum cycle: From the perspective of aluminum use and carbon emissions. *Journal of Environmental Management*. 344, 118461, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv... PMid:37481914.
28.
YIN K., XU Y., LI X., JIN X. Sectoral relationship analysis on China's marine-land economy based on a novel gray periodic relational model. *Journal of Cleaner Production*. 197, 815, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcle....
29.
YOU M.-L., SHU C.-M., CHEN W.-T., SHYU M.-L. Analysis of cardinal gray relational grade and gray entropy on achievement of air pollution reduction by evaluating air quality trend in Japan. *Journal of Cleaner Production*. 142, 3883, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcle....
30.
BRANDT L., LIM K. Opening up in the 21st century: A quantitative accounting of Chinese export growth. *Journal of International Economics*. 150, 103895, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jint....
31.
WANG S., ZHU Y. An inquiry into the effect of trade facilitation on China's digital product exports to countries along the Belt and Road. *International Review of Economics & Finance*. 93, 1246, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref....
32.
YU D., GU B., ZHU K., YANG J., SHENG Y. Risk analysis of China's renewable energy cooperation with Belt and Road economies. *Energy*. 293, 130664, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ener....
33.
TIAN X., HU Y., YIN H., GENG Y., BLEISCHWITZ R. Trade impacts of China's Belt and Road Initiative: From resource and environmental perspectives. *Resources, Conservation and Recycling*. 150, 104430, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resc....
34.
JIANG Q., MA X., WANG Y. How does the One Belt One Road initiative affect green economic growth? *Energy Economics*. 101, 105429, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enec....
35.
YE F.-F., YANG L.-H., LU H.-T., WANG Y.-M. A novel data-driven decision model based on extended belief rule base to predict China's carbon emissions. *Journal of Environmental Management*. 318, 115547, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv... PMid:35767921.
36.
YE L., YANG D., DANG Y., WANG J. An enhanced multivariable dynamic time-delay discrete gray forecasting model for predicting China's carbon emissions. *Energy*. 249, 123681, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ener....
37.
JIANG M., ZHAO S., JIA P. The spatial spillover effect of seaport capacity on export trade: Evidence from China pilot free trade zones. *Ocean & Coastal Management*. 245, 106879, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocec....
38.
KAO X., LIU Y., WANG W., WEN Q., ZHANG P. The pressure of coal consumption on China's carbon dioxide emissions: A spatial and temporal perspective. *Atmospheric Pollution Research*. 15 (8), 102188, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.....
39.
HUANG A., CHU M., CHENG W., WANG G., GUAN P., ZHANG L., JIA J. Dynamic evaluation of China's atmospheric environmental pressure from 2008 to 2017: Trends and drivers. *Journal of Environmental Sciences*. 150, 177, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.... PMid:39306394.
40.
WEI W. An empirical analysis on transformation of China's foreign trade development mode: based on vertical specialization. In *Vertical Specialization and Trade Surplus in China*, pp. 125–143, Chandos Publishing, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0....
41.
ZHAO H., LI Y., WANG Z., ZHAO R. Trade liberalization, regional trade openness degree, and foreign direct investment: Evidence from China. *Emerging Markets Review*. 59, 101103, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emem....
42.
REN Y., WANG Y., XIA L., WU D. An innovative information accumulation multivariable gray model and its application in China's renewable energy generation forecasting. *Expert Systems with Applications*. 252, 124130, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa....
43.
YI Y., ZHANG L., DU L., SUN H. Cross-regional integration of renewable energy and corporate carbon emissions: Evidence from China's cross-regional surplus renewable energy spot trading pilot. *Energy Economics*. 135, 107649, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enec....
44.
GUAN C., XU W., HUANG J. Can market-oriented and government-led spatial agglomeration of factories reduce carbon emission intensity? Evidence from China. *Journal of Environmental Management*. 364, 121468, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv... PMid:38879969.
45.
WANG M., ZHANG X., FENG C., WEN S. Towards a sustainable construction: A newly proposed Tapio-global meta-frontier DEA framework for decoupling China's construction economy from its carbon emissions. *Science of The Total Environment*. 929, 172727, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scit... PMid:38663603.
46.
ZHANG Z., SHARIFI A. Analysis of decoupling between CO₂ emissions and economic growth in China's provincial capital cities: A Tapio model approach. *Urban Climate*. 55, 101885, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ucli....
47.
LIU J., MA H., WANG Q., TIAN S., XU Y., ZHANG Y., YUAN X., MA Q., XU Y., YANG S. Optimization of energy consumption structure based on carbon emission reduction target: A case study in Shandong Province, China. *Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment*. 20 (2), 125, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjpr....
Share
RELATED ARTICLE
| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
