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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Influencing Factors and Emission Reduction Paths
of Industrial Carbon Emissions Under Target
of “Carbon Peaking”: Evidence from China
1
Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel,
Christian-Albrechts-Platz 4, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Submission date: 2023-11-07
Final revision date: 2024-04-13
Acceptance date: 2024-04-27
Online publication date: 2024-10-29
Publication date: 2025-01-28
Corresponding author
Kaifeng Li
Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Christian-Albrechts-Platz 4, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Christian-Albrechts-Platz 4, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2025;34(3):2715-2734
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Jiangsu Province is a major industrialized province in China and its carbon emissions rank in the top
five nationwide. It is of great significance to analyze Jiangsu’s carbon-peaking path for achieving China’s
carbon peaking target by 2030. In this paper, based on the log-mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition
method, we calculate the main factors’ contribution to the changes in industrial carbon emissions of Jiangsu
Province during 2010-2021 and reveal that the reduction in energy intensity and the optimization of energy
structure will suppress industrial CO2 emissions, while the output per capita has a promoting effect on
emissions. The results of the STIRPAT model fitted by ridge regression suggest that when the industrial
employed population, the per capita output, and the carbon emission intensity, including technological
progress, increase by 1%, the industrial CO2 emissions in Jiangsu Province increase by 0.832%, 0.602%,
and 0.815%, respectively. The discrete gray model DGM (1, 1) and the scenario analysis are used to
forecast the carbon emissions between 2022 and 2035. The result indicates that Jiangsu can achieve the
target of significant CO2 emissions reduction without sacrificing industrial economic growth in a situation
with a low population growth rate, a low per capita output growth rate, and a high carbon emission intensity
reduction rate. In this case, it can reach the target of reaching the carbon emission peak by 2030 and thus
lead to harmonious and sustainable socio-economic and environmental development.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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