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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Multi-Scenario Analysis of Land-Use Change
and Ecosystem Service Responses in Nyingchi
Using the PLUS–InVEST–EOF Framework
1
Resources and Environment College, Xizang Agricultural and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
2
Xizang Center for Human Settlement Research, Xizang Agricultural and Animal Husbandry University,
Nyingchi 860000, China
Submission date: 2025-07-25
Final revision date: 2026-01-23
Acceptance date: 2026-02-17
Online publication date: 2026-03-18
Corresponding author
Wenbo Li
Resources and Environment College, Xizang Agricultural and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
Resources and Environment College, Xizang Agricultural and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Spatiotemporal changes in land-use patterns reconfigure ecosystem service provision, making
it critical to quantify these responses for planning in ecologically fragile plateau regions. Land-use
in Nyingchi to 2030 was projected under multiple scenarios using the PLUS model; seven ES indicators
and a composite ecosystem service (CES) index were quantified. Spatiotemporal modes and dominant
drivers were assessed by combining Gi* hotspot and coldspot analysis with empirical orthogonal function
(EOF) decomposition. Results: (1) Built-up land increased by 18.68 km² in 2000-2010 (dynamic degree
28.23%) and 28.96 km² in 2010-2020; by 2030, built-up land is projected to increase by an additional
30.49 km² under the urban development (UD) scenario relative to 2020. (2) From 2000 to 2020, water
yield and soil retention declined by 29.7% and 49%; water purification weakened (higher nitrogen
and phosphorus exports); carbon storage fluctuated narrowly; and habitat quality stabilized at 0.734
after 2010. In 2030, water yield and carbon storage are projected to fall under UD, whereas higher
values across services are projected under the ecological protection scenario. (3) CES hotspots
contracted southward and became more fragmented; in 2030, the UD scenario shows the largest increase
in coldspot area (+5.90% relative to 2020). (4) The dominant spatiotemporal mode (EOF₁) paralleled
rapid urbanization, and negative EOF₁-loading areas overlapped ecosystem service coldspots,
suggesting potential path-dependent degradation in low-CES regions. Accordingly, we quantified
county-level EOF₁ loadings and delineated three differentiated management units. These results provide
quantified, comparable evidence for territorial spatial planning and ecological protection in Nyingchi,
and a methodological reference for similar high-altitude regions.
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