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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Simulation of the Potential Impact of Land Use
Change on Ecological Networks in the Context
of Rapid Urbanization
1
School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
2
Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, London, UK
3
Neweco Design Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200433, China
Submission date: 2023-10-31
Final revision date: 2023-12-22
Acceptance date: 2024-01-10
Online publication date: 2024-09-16
Publication date: 2025-01-09
Corresponding author
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2025;34(2):1787-1806
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Ecological networks (ENs) are considered an effective means of biodiversity and ecosystem protection.
However, the potential impact of land use change on ENs in rapid urbanization remains poorly understood.
This study combines patch generation land use simulation model (PLUS), circuit theory and complex
network theory to simulate the evolution of ENs in Jingmen City from 2020 to 2050, and constructs a
comprehensive evaluation framework for evaluation from two perspectives of function and structure. The
results show that ecological sources are decreasing in three scenarios in 2050. In particular, the natural
development and urban development scenarios lose 122.14 km2 and 155.55 km2, and lose 2 key corridors,
respectively. Urban expansion is essential reason for the loss in ecological network. Additionally, the
conflict between ENs and land development lead to functional degradation, manifested as an increase
in connectivity defects and a decrease in local centrality. Land expansion will weaken the structural
robustness of ENs, increase areas with weak ecological connections, and thin the backbone structure.
The potential negative impact of different expansion patterns on ENs varies, with restricted development
scenario being the smallest. The result reminds us that may be promoting urbanization at the expense of
sacrificing areas with significant ecological value.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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