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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Multi Scenario Simulation of Land Use
in Chaohu Lake Basin Based on PLUS Model
1
School of Geomatics, Anhui University of Science & Technology, NO. 168 Taifeng Road, Huainan 232001, China
Submission date: 2024-02-23
Final revision date: 2024-03-20
Acceptance date: 2024-04-13
Online publication date: 2024-06-13
Publication date: 2025-01-09
Corresponding author
WeiLing Guo
School of Geomatics, Anhui University of Science & Technology, NO. 168 Taifeng Road, Huainan 232001, China
School of Geomatics, Anhui University of Science & Technology, NO. 168 Taifeng Road, Huainan 232001, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2025;34(2):1207-1219
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Land is the fundamental resource upon which human survival depends. Research on land use
change coverage (LUCC) is crucial for predicting the future development of human society. This study
focuses on the Chaohu Lake Basin as the research area and selects three-time nodes to analyze the
spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces of LUCC in the Chaohu Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020.
Three scenarios were established: natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), and cultivated
land protection (CP). The LUCC of Chaohu Lake Basin in 2030 was simulated by the PLUS model
CARS module. Conclusion: (1) More than 95% of the land types are woodland, urban land, cultivated
land, and water bodies. From 2000 to 2020, 562.1634 km2 of cultivated land decayed and 544.9752 km2
of urban land expanded, with land transfers primarily occurring between farmland and urban land.
(2) The accuracy validation results of the PLUS model show an overall accuracy as high as 95.27%
and a kappa coefficient of 0.9182, meeting the requirements for land use simulation and prediction.
(3) Annual precipitation and population are the main drivers of changes in urban land and arable land.
(4) A comprehensive comparison of LUCC simulation results under three scenarios shows that the
expansion of urban land is restricted under the CP scenario while also ensuring the total amount of
farmland. This research provides a scientific basis and a decision-making reference for local government
land resource development and optimization.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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