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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario
Simulation of Trade-offs between Ecosystem
Services: A Case Study of Nansi Lake Basin, China
1
School of Geomatics, Geography and Urban-Rural Planning, Jiangsu Normal University
2
School of Architecture and Design, China University of Mining and Technology
Submission date: 2025-12-18
Final revision date: 2026-03-09
Acceptance date: 2026-03-18
Online publication date: 2026-07-10
Corresponding author
KEYWORDS
Nansi Lake basinecosystem servicestrade-off relationshipsgeographically weighted regression random forest modelmulti-scenario simulation
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Analyzing trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services is essential for promoting ecological
conservation and socio-economic development, thereby enhancing comprehensive human well-being.
Taking the Nansi Lake Basin as the study area, this research reveals the spatiotemporal dynamics
of service couplings and their spatiotemporal distribution over the period from 2000 to 2020.
A Geographically Weighted Regression Random Forest (GWRF) model was employed to investigate
the effects of influencing factors on these interrelationships. Furthermore, the GeoSOS-FLUS model
was utilized to simulate future linkages under three different scenarios by the year 2040. The findings
indicate that ecosystem services exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with water retention and
grain production services showing consistent annual increments. The trade-off/synergy relationships
among ecosystem services experienced complex dynamic changes. Key influencing factors included
natural elements such as elevation, annual precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The effects of all
factors on service balances were spatially heterogeneous. The relationships among ecosystem services
differed markedly across the development scenarios. Under the natural development scenario, services
demonstrated synergistic co-development with low trade-off levels. The ecological conservation
scenario enhanced water purification services while maintaining the stability of grain production
services, resulting in relatively stable interaction dynamics. In contrast, the economic development
scenario led to a general decline in ecosystem services, revealing prominent conflicts among them.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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