We applied decoupling relationship analysis in this study to explore the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth using data from Hotan prefecture in 1999-2013. The results demonstrated:
1. During 1999-2013 the decoupling index between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth showed a “decoupling, hooking, and decoupling” three-state process. This was in the relative decoupling stage between 1999 and 2004, the relative hook state between 2005 and 2009, and the relative decoupling stage between 2010 and 2013. According to the elastic index, the relationship was in a strong decoupling state between 2000 and 2002, a weak decoupling state between 2003 and 2004, an expansive negative decoupling state between 2005 and 2009, and a weak decoupling state between 2010 and 2013.
2. Hotan is an area whose carbon emissions intensity is higher than that of the China and Xinjiang regions, is a serious lag on the decoupling stage to the nation and the region, and cannot achieve its agricultural carbon emission reduction targets by 2030. Therefore, a low carbon agriculture economy is the best strategic choice to develop its economy and address global climate change in Hotan.
Thus, we have proposed policy recommendations including the establishment of a low carbon sense, the change of agricultural development way, the development of agricultural S&T, and the establishment of an incentive mechanism.