ORIGINAL RESEARCH
“Coal-to-Oil Substitution”: New Energy Vehicles
and Electricity Carbon Emissions – Based on
“Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles” Pilot Project
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1
Zhengzhou Business University, Zhengzhou, China
2
School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng, China
3
Henan Academy of Social Sciences, Zhengzhou, China
4
Wuxi Institute of Technology, Wuxi, China
5
Central China Development Research Institute, Henan University, Zhengzhou, China
6
School of Politics and Public Administration, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
Submission date: 2024-12-30
Final revision date: 2025-06-04
Acceptance date: 2025-08-23
Online publication date: 2025-12-03
Corresponding author
Dong Xue
Henan Academy of Social Sciences, Zhengzhou, China
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ABSTRACT
This study analyzes the impact of New Energy Vehicle (NEV) promotion on electricity sector
carbon emissions using panel data from 50 Chinese cities (2006-2020) and a multi-period DID model.
NEV promotion, while reducing transportation sector emissions, has increased carbon emissions
in the electricity sector due to reliance on coal-based power generation. Results indicate that
(1) In “Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles” pilot cities, NEV adoption increased power sector carbon
emissions by an average of 1.19%. Furthermore, the “Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles” plan generated
significant spatial spillover effects, elevating power sector emissions in neighboring regions.
(2) Through China’s “West-to-East Power Transmission” project reveals that the use of electricity by
NEVs also places carbon reduction pressure on the power generation sector. This pressure can shift
through local and cross-regional electricity transmission, thereby creating a “regional transfer” effect
of carbon emissions; (3) Mechanism analysis indicates that NEV usage increases regional electricity
demand and fossil energy consumption while synergistically enhancing regional renewable energy
technological innovation. Policy implementation has also accelerated advancements in “three-electric
systems” (battery, motor, electronic control) and V2G technologies, which improve NEV energy
efficiency though require further refinement; (4) Under policy synergies between NEV demonstration
cities and low-carbon city initiatives, NEV promotion effectively mitigates carbon emission transfers
to power sectors while amplifying environmentally positive externalities. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the negative environmental externalities of NEV promotion, offering
a new perspective on NEV development.