The rapid consumption of energy has caused a surge in carbon emissions and led to serious ecological problems. This paper takes Hebei Province as the research area. First, carbon emissions related to energy consumption are calculated from 2001 to 2015, and then the decomposition analysis of the carbon emissions data is performed by using the LMDI method based on the extended IPAT model. Finally, according to the potential drivers derived from the decomposition results and the future trend of low-carbon development, three scenarios are set up, namely inertial emission reduction scenarios, relative emission reduction scenarios, and absolute emission reduction scenarios. The results show that the overall carbon emissions from 2001 to 2015 are on an upward trend, increasing by 4.08 times during the study period. Economic progress is the main driving factor for the rising CO₂ in emitter, followed by energy consumption structure and population size, and the effect of technological progress has inhibited the increasing carbon emissions. The gradual optimization of Hebei’s industrial structure has changed the industrial structure effect from promotion to suppression. The final scenario analysis indicates that the relative emission reduction scenario and absolute emission reduction scenario can both achieve the Copenhagen emissions reduction target and the Paris Agreement target, but the relative emissions reduction scenario has become the most reasonable low-carbon pathway. Finally, by designing and implementing a local carbon emissions trading system, regional development could be encouraged to be closer to a relative emissions reduction scenario. Low-carbon transformation in other regions would be exerted by the avenue opened by this paper.