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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Research on Deformation Control Factors
and Prediction Methods for Reservoir Slope
in China
1
School of Geomatics, Zhejiang University of Water Resources
and Electric Power, Hangzhou
Submission date: 2024-02-27
Final revision date: 2024-03-30
Acceptance date: 2024-05-01
Online publication date: 2024-10-07
Publication date: 2025-01-28
Corresponding author
Bing Zhang
School of Geomatics and Municipal Engineering, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, China
School of Geomatics and Municipal Engineering, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2025;34(3):2951-2962
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
China is a country in which landslide disasters occur frequently, and slope movement has a direct
influence on the landslide, making the analysis of slope movement and forecasting an important
research direction. Currently, there is relatively limited research in the field of slope deformation
analysis models. The research target is based on the reservoir slope, and the specific research targets are
the Dingdong trough Zhengjiadagou slopes. From the perspective of hydrological surveying and
mapping, a slope deformation analysis model is constructed. The displacement control factor is the main
analysis object, while rainfall and reservoir water level are the main influencing factors. The internal
structure of the slope is considered a characteristic factor affecting slope deformation and sliding.
The results indicate that the displacement control factor of slope sliding under the influence of gravity
is related to the variation of reservoir water level, with the reservoir water level being the main influencing
factor. The effect of rainfall on slope deformation is not significant. Using the models of metabolic
GM (1, 1), new information GM (1, 1), and GM (1, 1) to predict the deformation trend of the three slopes,
of which the average error is 5.45%, 5.85%, and 7.48%. The results indicate that constructing a reservoir
slope analysis model from the perspective of hydrological surveying provides a visual advantage
in studying slope deformation issues using the model analysis approach, and the metabolism
GM (1, 1) model in the slope deformation trend prediction accuracy is higher. This paper provides
theoretical guidance and instance reference for the slope instance research.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
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