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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Simulation and Prediction of Vegetation Dynamic
Change in Three Provinces of Northeast China
from 2025 to 2099 Based on Climate Scenarios
1
School of Geographical Sciences, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, 116029, China
2
Dalian Key Laboratory of Agro-Meteorological Disaster Risk Prevention and Control,
Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, Liaoning 116029, China
Submission date: 2025-04-17
Final revision date: 2025-07-02
Acceptance date: 2025-10-02
Online publication date: 2025-11-17
Corresponding author
KEYWORDS
climate scenariovegetationNDVIshared socio-economic pathways (SSPS)the three northeastern provinces of China
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
As a critical ecological barrier, the three northeastern provinces of China have profound ecological
significance. The distinctive distribution patterns of vegetation, shaped by specific geographical
endowments and climatic regimes, have a unique position among global environmental change
research. This study aims to characterize future climate change and vegetation dynamics in response
to global warming development, and to reveal the mechanistic responses of future vegetation change
to extreme climate changes. In this study, we employed a multiple linear regression model to quantify
the spatiotemporal correlations between NDVI and climatic variables (temperature/precipitation),
based on high-resolution meteorological datasets and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) time-series (2001-2020). Then we used a univariate linear regression model combined with
the Theil-Sen estimator and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test to study vegetation changes under different Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs245and SSPs585). The results show as follows: (1) Under the SSP245
and SSP585 climate scenarios, an overall fluctuating upward trend in temperature and precipitation was
observed in the three northeastern provinces of China. (2) Under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,
NDVI shows a fluctuating decrease and a fluctuating increase, respectively. Spatial heterogeneity was
evident in the vegetation distribution pattern. (3) Temperature and precipitation influence vegetation
distribution, and NDVI also responds to climatic variation. These findings provide a scientific basis
for evidence-based climate adaptation strategies and sustainable ecosystem management in Northeast
China.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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