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eISSN: 2083-5906
ISSN: 1230-1485
ISSN: 1230-1485
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Future
Trajectories of Landscape Ecological Risks
in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, China
1
School of Architecture, Nanyang Institute of Technology, Nanyang 473004, China
2
School of Marxism, Nanyang Institute of Technology, Nanyang 473004, China
Submission date: 2026-05-17
Final revision date: 2026-06-21
Acceptance date: 2026-07-12
Online publication date: 2026-10-26
Corresponding author
Zhifang Pei
School of Architecture, Nanyang Institute of Technology, Changjiang Road No. 80, 473004, Nanyang, China
School of Architecture, Nanyang Institute of Technology, Changjiang Road No. 80, 473004, Nanyang, China
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
As a pivotal node of China's national ecological network, the Danjiangkou reservoir area has long
been a focal point for ecological security due to its complex human–land interactions and high ecological
vulnerability. Optimizing land use patterns is therefore essential for supporting sustainable ecosystem
growth in this area. Utilizing the Landscape Ecological Risk Index (LERI), this study characterized
the historical evolution of ecological risks (2000–2020). To explore future risks, the PLUS model was
employed to project future land use patterns across various scenarios for 2030, and the related risks
were evaluated in the reservoir area. The findings reveal that (1) From 2000 to 2020, land use structure
underwent substantial reconfiguration, with forest and water expansion contrasting with declines in
cultivated land and grassland, driven primarily by ecological restoration and reservoir construction;
(2) The Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) exhibited strong positive spatial autocorrelation, with highrisk
clusters concentrated in central zones with intensive human activity, while low-risk areas remained
in mountainous regions with minimal disturbance; (3) Scenario simulations reveal that under the natural
development (ND) and cultivated land preservation (CP) scenarios, urban expansion and agricultural
encroachment further increase the aggregation of high-risk patches. Conversely, the ecological
protection (EP) scenario – prioritizing restoration and spatial regulation – effectively mitigates risk
and expands low-risk areas; (4) To guarantee long-term ecological stability, territorial spatial planning
must prioritize ecological protection pathways, complemented by targeted restoration in high-risk zones
and cross-administrative synergistic management. These insights provide critical evidence for adaptive
management and the pursuit of regional sustainability within the reservoir area.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
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