The coordination of an energy-economic-environment (3E) system has attracted increasing attention recently to achieve sustainable development. Shanxi Province, a typical energy-dominated region in China, has long-term dependency on coal industry generating extensive economic growth, which is detrimental to sustainable progress. Therefore, it is beneficial to explore the intrinsic connection of the 3E system in Shanxi for policy implications. Based on energy consumption, GDP and energy-related CO₂ emissions from 1999 to 2015, a VAR model of the 3E system in Shanxi was established. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition were employed to analyze the dynamic relationship between energy, economy, and the environment, with these three values being predicted from 2016 to 2023. Results indicate that a positive shock in economic growth negatively impacts energy consumption, and a positive change in energy consumption positively affects economic growth and CO₂ emissions as well. From variance decomposition, the innovation to energy consumption accounts for fluctuation of 82.29% in GDP in the long run, and CO₂ emissions attributed to innovations in energy consumption range 64.53% to 77.68%. VAR model forecasts there will be an increasing tendency of energy consumption, GDP, and CO₂ emissions. Accordingly, Shanxi can achieve sustainable development through vigorously optimizing energy structure and promoting low-carbon technological innovation.