Thermal power is the main part in China’s energy structure of power industry. Because of huge carbon emissions and relatively high energy consumption, thermal power has been listed as an important industry for energy conservation and emission reduction. Therefore, the growth rate, carbon emissions growth peak and developing trend of China’s thermal power are modeled and simulated based on System Dynamics. With three scenarios set up, so as to explore the impact of the economic development, optimization of power structure and improve CCS technology and adjust national policy on carbon emissions thermal power industry in the future. The results show that, according to the current development trend, the total amount of carbon emissions in thermal power industry will reach a peak of 4.228 billion t in 2026. At the same time, there is a significant positive correlation between economic development and thermal power carbon emissions. The current best and fastest way for China is reducing the proportion of thermal power generation and increasing the proportion of non-fossil power generation. The widespread use of the CCS technology will also greatly reduce thermal power carbon emissions. The simulation results of this paper provide the Chinese government with suggestions for carbon emissions reduction, power structure determination, the long-time development of thermal power.