ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Research on the Impact of Green
Technology Innovation on Carbon
Emission Reduction Maturity in China:
Heterogeneity and Mediating Effect
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School of Economics and Management, Institute of energy economic, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing, 163318,
China
Submission date: 2024-11-12
Final revision date: 2025-01-31
Acceptance date: 2025-02-22
Online publication date: 2025-06-04
Corresponding author
Shuo Fan
School of Economics and Management, Institute of Energy Economic, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing, 163318,
China
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ABSTRACT
Green technology innovation plays a pivotal role in supporting low-carbon development and serves
as a key driver for enhancing carbon reduction maturity. Using a specialized calculation model, this
study calculates the Carbon Reduction Maturity Index for 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2022. The
empirical analysis, based on a fixed-effects panel model and a mediation effect model, reveals that a 1%
increase in green technology innovation leads to an estimated 0.85% rise in carbon reduction maturity.
Additionally, spatial spillover effects indicate that advancements in one province contribute to a 0.27%
increase in the carbon reduction maturity of neighboring regions. The mediation analysis confirms that
industrial structure upgrading and energy structure optimization play significant roles in this process,
explaining 21.8% and 18.4% of the total effect, respectively. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact
of green technology innovation is more pronounced in economically developed eastern regions, where
market-driven mechanisms and technological advancements accelerate the transition to a low-carbon
economy. Based on these findings, the study proposes targeted policy recommendations, including
regionally differentiated green technology innovation strategies, industrial structure optimization,
energy efficiency improvements, strengthened international cooperation, and the promotion of green
consumption to enhance green innovation capabilities and advance carbon reduction maturity.