As an important financial instrument, digital inclusive finance (DIF) represents a significant pathway toward achieving sustainable development. Utilizing the fixed-effects, mediation effects, moderation effects, and threshold effects models, this study investigates the influence and detailed mechanism of DIF on agricultural carbon emissions through provincial data in China from 2011 to 2020. The results reveal that: (1) DIF leads to a reduction in agricultural carbon emissions, with the greatest effect observed in the dimension of deep agricultural carbon reduction. (2) The carbon reduction effect can be achieved by enhancing entrepreneurial vitality among farmers, an advanced agricultural industrial structure, and increased levels of agricultural product trade. (3) There is a substitution effect, where large-scale farmland operations weaken the carbon reduction effect. (4) Beyond a certain threshold, DIF exerts a stronger restraining effect on carbon emissions. The conclusions have implications for the government’s promotion of digital infrastructure and green development in the agriculture industry. Consequently, this study suggests that the development of DIF should be accelerated.