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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
U-shaped Relationship between Financial
Development and Greenhouse Gases
in Vietnam: ARDL Bound Test Approach
1
Faculty of Finance and Banking, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 69/68 Dang Thuy Tram Street,
Ward 13, Binh Thanh District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
2
School of Media Design, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 59C Nguyen Dinh Chieu Street,
Ward Vo Thi Sau, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
3
Department of Science, Technology and International Projects, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics
and Finance, 141-145 Dien Bien Phu Street, Ward 2, Binh Thanh District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Submission date: 2024-07-05
Final revision date: 2024-09-05
Acceptance date: 2024-12-02
Online publication date: 2025-03-27
Publication date: 2026-01-30
Corresponding author
Tran Thai Ha Nguyen
Department of Science, Technology and International Projects, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics and Finance, 141-145 Dien Bien Phu Street, Ward 2, Binh Thanh District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Department of Science, Technology and International Projects, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics and Finance, 141-145 Dien Bien Phu Street, Ward 2, Binh Thanh District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2026;35(1):761-776
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
This study investigates whether financial development can reduce greenhouse gas emissions without
compromising environmental quality in Vietnam. Covering the period from 1990 to 2021, we examined
the relationship between financial development and emissions alongside other critical factors such as
foreign direct investment, trade openness, gross capital formation, energy consumption, and industrial
development. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation framework, pollutants
(carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide), financial development, and the determinants of these emissions
exhibited a long-term co-integrated relationship, whereas the estimations identified a U-shaped
relationship between financial development and pollutants in the long term. This finding indicates that
environmental degradation initially rises with financial development but starts to decline once a certain
level of financial development is achieved, challenging the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
hypothesis for Vietnam. Moreover, foreign direct investment contributes to the reduction of greenhouse
gas emissions, whereas gross fixed capital formation and industrial development increase the carbon
dioxide footprint. The effects of trade openness and energy consumption on emissions vary between
the short and long term. Based on these findings, crucial recommendations for industrial development
and gross fixed capital formation are provided to prevent further environmental degradation while
promoting sustainable financial growth. This study underscores the importance of financial development
in achieving zero-emissions targets and mitigating climate change by decreasing greenhouse gas
emissions and reducing environmental impacts.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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